platform shoes and bear markets

Bob Morris bobmorris at mediaone.net
Sat May 12 11:23:38 PDT 2001



>>>> Punk is bearish. Girl groups are popular during corrections.
>
>>Victor Neiderhoffer, in Education of a Speculator, explains cogently why
>>mapping two stock charts together and discovering "similarities" is often
>>just looking at random noise.


>Hmm, well, I think Prechter may have a point. If you accept the point
that stock markets reflect popular moods, and you accept the fact

Well, how about punk girl groups like L7 or the Donna's. Are they bullish or bearish??? If Courtney Love releases a CD, should I short the S&P or go long????

Seriously though, Neiderhoffer, a serious numbers cruncher who doesn't believe in TA, ran the numbers on the rising hemlines=rising market hypothesis, and found no correlation. Did the same on the Monday Is A Down Day hypothesis and also found little correlation. He also makes the point that any correlations one discovers generally don't last long, in part, because others soon discover them too.

His book ranges widely, drawing on music, science, handball, horse racing, and more, to draw analogies that can be useful for trading. Definitely a good read.


>Charts are another story. Burton Malkiel exposed some technicians to
some charts he'd randomly generated, and they found their usual pennants, double bottoms, and rising wedges anyway.

This is exactly what Neiderhoffer means.



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