On Sat, 3 Nov 2001, Rakesh Bhandari wrote:
I thought this was an excellant and interesting post, Rakesh. But I have one question:
> Yet the House of Saud probably could not survive a day without US
> support,
This is often asserted, but I wonder what we provide to the House of Saud that is so indispensible that they would tumble if we withdrew it. Destroying Saddam in 1991 was certainly indispensable to their continued existence, no dispute there. But wasn't that a one-off that's now off? I think it's at least arguable that the Saudis haven't faced any other serious external military threats to their existence since they unified the country. So the question is, what have we provided them over the last 70 years that has ensured their internal stability, which would vanish if we took it away?
The regime certainly seems to have been remarkably stable by comparison with its West Asian neighbors. (I love that phrase. I can't believe I haven't seen it before). I think it's the only one of them that has lasted from WWI until the present under the same continuous system and without suffering any coups (ignoring the anamolous city states). And as far as I know they've managed this internal stability mainly under their own initiative. Certainly they've done it with their own money. And the US doesn't seem to have been as involved in the nitty gritty of state security as they were with say the Shah. If anything, the opposite seems to be the case. The internal rumblings in Saudi Arabia seem to have gotten more dangerous in the last decade in part precisely because US support and presence became palpable. The regime might well be on the edge of the a volcano right now for all I know. But I don't see how we're the ones holding them back from imminently falling in. Our military presence seems if anything to be pushing them. Such stability as they have seems, for better or worse, to be internally managed and shored up with their own resources. Unless I'm missing a crucial element?
Michael
__________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com