I've been looking at the LOBtalk list today: this oil thread, I haven't read it all, but it seems that yer man Cyrus Bina while right-on about avoiding oil fetishism is down playing OPEC's real political impact. Clearly OPEC has been stronger and weaker at times and the "nationalist" forces (for lack of a better term) within opec have seen their fortunes wax and wane. For example when your friend and mine, Muamer kick off the 73 crisis by smacking Armand Hammar's Occidental upsidethehead, the nationalist were strong and so was OPEC. The Saudi's of course led the sellout and shutdown hopes of a "new international economic order" in 1974 when they agreed to hand over all rents for recycling in US and European finacial markets rather than reinvestment them some develomentalis fashion in the Global South. But then again, when Iran fell into chaos in late '78 and '79 and much of its capacity went off line (momenterally over riding the Saudi ablity to flood and derpess prices) Nasserite visions again merged with good old "rent seeking behavior" to allow for a second price shock. The gulf war certainly left Opec in disrepair for much of the 1990s...
But durring those moments when OPEC gets its shit together it definitely exerts very meaningful power (not monopoly power)over oil prices. Isn't that what has been happening lately. Oil was at $8 a barrel durring and just after the Asain crisis but has since reach momentary heights of $30. These rents have helped give life to at least russian and venezuelan economies. And isn't this bounce due, in large part, to the political leadership of Ail Rodreguez (a form marxist guerilla, now one of Hugo Chavez's tight comrades and chief minister of OPEC)? And when thinking of OPEC shouldn't we also watch closely the organization's influence on norway, mexico and russia three key, informally allied nonmembers that almost always follow OPEC quotas?
Perhaps I've misread Cyprus Bin's comments as giving too little credit to "the cartel" and too much power to markets. And now that I've rambled on I'll check the article he suggested. However, if your list-nics or Bina have any further thoughts I'll be tuning in. Regards, Christian Parenti