Who will control Kabul - Moscow or Washington?
The Americans and Pakistanis have been caught off-guard by the swift developments on the warfront inside Afghanistan and the easy victory of Northern Alliance, says Zafar Agha http://tehelka.com/channels/currentaffairs/2001/nov/13/printable/ca111301whatpr.htm
New Delhi, November 13
Well, Kabul has fallen without much of resistance. Taliban, in fact, have abandoned the Afghan capital without any fight, leaving it wide open for its opponent, Northern Alliance, to enter the city that Mullah Omar controlled for abut six years. "We entered Kabul a little after 7 in the morning and there were no Taliban around to resist', John Simpson of the BBC reported from the fallen city, that was in a jubilant mood celebrating the end of a repressive regime.
Ironically, Americans, and their ally Pakistan, did not seem too pleased with the fall of Kabul. There was no word from United States President George W Bush almost 12 hours after the collapse of Kabul, that signalled the beginning of the end of Taliban inside Afghanistan.
No other senior American official, neither Secretary of State Collin Powell nor Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld reacted to the fall of Kabul for hours. Only junior level Pentagon officials were commenting that "the situation was fluid" while President Bush was huddled in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin inside the White House. Pakistan officials were trying to impress upon Northern Alliance to wait at the Kabul gates till a UN-led arrangement was in place to govern Kabul.
It was quite evident from both American and Pakistani official behaviour that the news of Northern Alliance capturing Kabul that they were not too happy with the development. It seems Russians managed a coup, keeping Americans in the dark while quietly nudging Northern alliance with fresh supplies of armoured vehicles and munitions in the last one week, which enabled the Northern Alliance to capture Kabul.
India too seems to have played ball with Moscow, encouraging Northern Alliance to oust Taliban from Kabul. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpyee during his trip to Moscow last week seemed to have impressed upon Putin to go ahead and capture major parts of Afghanistan, so that it will help Russia and India to play a key role in post-Taliban Afghanistan.
The question is: who will now control Kabul? A nervous Pakistan foreign office spokesman first said: "Northern Alliance forces must not occupy Kabul." A little later the tone changed, and Islamabad began to say Kabul be placed under U N control to keep order in a "demilitarised city". Americans were initially maintaining stoic silence. Later junior officials began to suggest that UN should take control of Kabul. Americans too did not want Northern Alliance to completely take charge of Kabul, and thus emerge a key player in the post-Taliban situation.
Clearly, a quiet tussle to control post-Taliban Kabul between Americans and the Pakistanis on one side, and the Russians and Indians on the other, has begun. Americans have all along been harping that post-Taliban Afghanistan should remain under an American and Pakistani backed set-up. They were pushing for ousted King Zahir Shah to head a UN-supervised arrangement in which Pashtoons (the Afghan tribe close to Pakistan) and Turkey (the only Muslim NATO member country) were supposed to play a key role while Northern Alliance was kept on the margins.
Sensing the fall of Kabul., Powell suggested that an interim arrangement of a peacekeeping force led by soldiers from Muslim nations like Turkey, Bangladesh and Indonesia should control the Afghan capital. Naturally, Powell was trying to keep the Russian-backed Northern alliance out of Kabul.
But Russians pulled a fast one on the nervous Americans, who became restless with the approaching holy month of Ramadan, and some of the Muslim countries, especially Saudi Arabia, pressing the US to end military operations before that. So the swift moves by Northern Alliance in the last few days, first with the capture of Mazar, then other small towns like Pul-e-Khumri, Taloqan, Maimana, Daste Qila and, now, Kabul caught both Washington and Islamabad off guard. Americans still have no post-Taliban alternative ready. Northern Alliance is now sitting pretty inside Kabul. It is now in a bargaining position in any post-Taliban alternative arrangement to emerge in Afghanistan. The Russian-Indian-Iranian axis will now bargain with Americans, and they will try to minimize Pakistani influence in the post-Taliban Afghanistan.
The dramatic and unexpected collapse of Taliban, and the quick march of Northern Alliance into Kabul, have upset the American game plan. The Russians and the Indians, who had been backing Northern Alliance for years are back in the game. Both President Bush and General Musharraf must be worried about the swift changes in Afghanistan. So, no one can still say who will eventually control Kabul. The US will try to quietly pressurize Russia to rein in Northern Alliance.
India should not let this opportunity slip out of its hands. It should continue to nudge Russia to continue to support Northern Alliance, both militarily and financially. Post-Taliban Afghanistan should no more be allowed to be dominated by Pakistan. India and Russia should not let Americans and Pakistanis play their game in Afghanistan, which was one of the key sources of exporting terrorists into Kashmir.