Nude Finaces

rws at comedu.canberra.edu.au rws at comedu.canberra.edu.au
Thu Nov 22 18:55:52 PST 2001


G'day Doug,


> Hey Rob, the Dow is up 20% from its Sep 21 low. Bear trap, or new bull?

Well, with an S&P500 p/e of about 50, lean times ahead for the partially superceded desk-top and a bloated flagship software that depends on everyone buying new boxes, stretched companies resiling from investment programmes, cars selling below cost, real estate peaking, lenders setting ever more rigorous terms, the Fed looking on from the outside, and some end-of-year account- settling ahead, I shouldn't be surprised if the next few weeks leaves some very sore steers in its wake.

Maybe the 'war' created a new level of expectations, and the good 'news' coming from there have caused punters and consumers to forget they weren't feeling all that cocky on September 10th. Maybe people believe what they want to believe, and swallow all that S11-dunnit-and-it's-over palaver. I dunno.

I still don't hear the economic cavalry, though. Do you?

Cheers, Rob.

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