Monday, November 19, 2001
Agriculture provides hope for Bangladesh
DHAKA
AGRICULTURE is the only ray of hope that pierces the gloom enshrouding Bangladesh's fragile economy.
Bangladesh's exports have dropped sharply since the September 13 attacks on the United States, foreign exchange reserves are low and falling and there is no agreement with the International Monetary Fund on a proposed aid package.
But agriculture, which employs an estimated 64 per cent of Bangladesh's 60 million workforce and makes up 27 per cent of gross domestic product, is growing steadily, officials and economists said on Tuesday.
They forecast increased foodgrain production in the fiscalyear to June 2002, thanks to favourable weather conditions and efficient crop management.
EXPORTS FALL, FACTORIES CLOSE
Problems for the rest of Bangladesh's economy have become more acute since the September 11 attacks on the United States.
Foreign exchange reserves dropped to $1.04 billion at the end of October from $1.42 billion a year earlier, central bank officials said.
Business groups say Bangladesh's main export earner, its garments, faces barriers entering the United States and stiffer competition in European markets.
The United States buys 40 per cent of Bangladesh's annual $4.86 billion garment exports or more than 75 per cent of the country's total annual exports, commerce officials said.
Export orders fell further in the wake of America's war against Afghanistan and the overall global economic slowdown.
More than 1,200 of Bangladesh's 3,200 garment factories have already closed, most after the United States started bombing Afghanistan on October 7.
When the United States launched its campaign against terrorism, Bangladesh offered Washington the use of its airspace, ports and other facilities, hoping Anmerica in return would lift quotas and duty on its garments exports.
So far there have been no concessions from the United States, despite the efforts of Foreign Minister Badruddoza Chowdhury during a visit last week to Washington.
"The garment industry, which employs some two million workers, 90 per cent of them women, now faces even more uncertainty," said Quazi Muniruzzaman, the Vice President of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
The Association plans a follow-up visit with Commerce Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury to Washington.
"We are trying to break the ice and save the industry," said Muniruzzaman.
"We have already laid off tens of thousands of workers after export orders have been cut or frozen, pushing them on the verge of starvation," he said.
Exports of frozen food -- mainly fish -- which fetch Bangladesh more than $360 million annually, are also declining, exporters said.
The value of total exports in September was about 35 per cent down on the same month last year, according to Tajul Islam, Director General of the Export Promotion Bureau.
"The overall export picture for October is likely to be grimmer," Islam told Reuters.
AGRICULTURE LOOKS BRIGHTER
"The only sector so far looking bright is agriculture with yield of foodgrains likely to rise to 27.9 million tonnes this fiscal year," A.K.M. Nurul Afsar, the head of the Directorate General of Food, told Reuters.
He said Bangladesh produced 24.8 million tonnes of rice and 1.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2000-01, leaving a surplus of more than 4 million tonnes.
Afsar said production targets for the year to June 2002 -- 25.95 million tonnes of rice and 1.95 million tonnes of wheat -- "look achievable as weather conditions have been favourable".
Bangladesh has had no major flooding or drought over the last three or four years, Afsar added.
"Efficient crop management in terms of supply of manure and irrigation is also to be credited for the successive bumper crops since 1998-99," officials at the government's agriculture extension department said.
NO RELIEF FOR POVERTY
They said Bangladesh's annual food requirement was around 22 million tonnes and the government maintained a reserve of up to 1.5 million tonnes to meet emergencies.
The rest of the surplus lies with the farmers.
"Yet some 47 per cent of the country's 130 million people still live in poverty, including 23 per cent in absolute poverty," Afsar said.
Most farms are owned by landlords who keep most of the crop yield and use the rest to pay the farm labourers and landless share croppers, says Dr. Quazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmed, a leading economist.
"This means the surplus production are also held by the land owners while others working in their fields remain poor for generations," Kholiquzzaman said.
Farm workers' incomes could soon face pressure from a return to the land by jobless industrial workers, he predicts.
"More competition for limited work in the fields would result in less pay and less buying power," Kholiquzzaman said.
"And it is unlikely that agriculture can absorb all the new comers, leaving many, particularly the women, to seek alternative ways of earning money."
Social welfare groups also warn that hundreds of girls who lost their jobs in garment factories have taken up prostitution and jobless boys are also turning to crime. ( REUTERS )
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