Military Brass Behind Musharraf 1950 GMT, 011004
Summary
Though beset by challenges inside and outside of Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf appears to be maintaining a secure power base in the Pakistani Army. An extended tenure and recent reshuffling should keep him in power as tensions between the United States, Afghanistan and fundamentalist Muslims in Pakistan increase.
Analysis
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who was scheduled to retire as chief of the Pakistani army Oct. 6, has renewed his tenure for another three years, the Urdu-language newspaper Nawai Waqt reported Oct 1. Besides the presidency, Musharraf holds the positions of army chief, chief executive and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Committee.
Pakistan -- now a U.S. ally but still the only nation to recognize the hard-line Taliban regime as neighboring Afghanistan's legal ruling body -- is precariously placed in the new U.S.-led war on terrorism, partly because of strong Islamic fundamentalist sentiments within its borders. But despite the dangers to his regime, Musharraf's power base appears relatively secure. The army is one of the most powerful institutions in Pakistan, and -- through his extended tenure and some savvy personnel reshuffling -- Musharraf has solidified his position as its commander and likely will maintain control over his country.
The presidency of Pakistan is an unstable office in the best of times, and Musharraf's stability is extremely important to the United States as it prepares to strike those suspected of organizing the Pentagon and World Trade Center attacks. Musharraf has shown a willingness to cooperate with Washington -- for the right price -- and is no admirer of radical Islamic groups. Should Musharraf tumble, he would very likely be replaced by a regime much more sympathetic to the Taliban.
Musharraf apparently feels confident enough to withdraw army troops from Afghanistan and prepare for U.S. military operations on Pakistani territory. Indian defense officials report that all of the 1,500 Pakistani troops that had been advising and fighting with the Taliban before Sept. 11 have been pulled out although they did leave most of their weapons and equipment behind, according to the Press Trust of India.
Another show of confidence came when Musharraf began preparations for U.S. military forces to arrive in Pakistan despite strong domestic opposition. The Pakistani air force evacuated two military bases near Quetta and Peshawar around Sept. 30, the Pakistani Observer reported. Quetta is within striking distance of Kandahar in Afghanistan, and Peshawar is relatively close to the Afghan capital of Kabul. U.S. Air Force personnel are reportedly setting up logistical and command and control equipment at both bases.
As president, Musharraf could legally reappoint himself as army chief. But he made it a point to ask for, and receive, the approval of Pakistan's top military brass. Many people saw the approval period as a potential crisis point, when opposing military figures could step out and challenge Musharraf. But no challenges arose.
During his three years in the top army post, Musharraf has carefully stacked the military's senior ranks with political allies -- a process he continued through the final days of September. As controversy mounted over Pakistan's support of the U.S.-led anti-terrorism coalition, Musharraf promoted and reassigned a number of major generals in the army, according to The News, an Islamabad daily. The appointments fit the normal promotion schedule, but Musharraf was careful to install loyalists into commanding positions within Pakistan, on the border with Afghanistan and in his command circle.
Musharraf's strong position within the military is due in large part to his corporate style of decision-making, according to the South Asia Analysis Group. All important decisions are made in consultation with his Corps Commanders committee, which has become the most significant body for military and government policy in Pakistan. As "first among equals," Musharraf does not have total control and must operate by consensus; thus, his decisions carry the weight of the entire military, not a particular clique.
The dangers to Musharraf's regime have not entirely evaporated, however. Ethnic links between the Afghans and the Pakistani army pose the most obvious potential source of trouble. About 40 percent of the army is Pushtun, the same ethnicity as most of the Taliban and the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. But sources in Pakistan say few Pakistani Pushtuns feel any great love for the Taliban, whose harsh ideology has turned off many Afghan Pushtuns. There should be relatively few problems with Pakistan's Pushtuns as long as U.S. military operations center on the hardcore Taliban fighters.
Another danger is the presence of Islamic fundamentalists within the army. Ideologically, they lean toward the Taliban. Lt. Gen. Aziz Khan, once part of Musharraf's inner circle, was formerly responsible for Pakistani operations in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Aziz reportedly favored the Taliban even as Musharraf spent the past year trying to rein them in. But the argument appeared to be over policy, not ideology, and Musharraf sidelined Aziz with a posting in Lahore -- a relatively liberal area with fewer zealots. Sources in Pakistan suggest there is little chance of Aziz leading a coup, as he still considers himself a patriot.
With the support of the military high command, Musharraf's position is relatively secure. Although the military has taken power five times in Pakistan's half-century of existence, the commanding generals have traditionally acted as one. There is little precedent for a lone, disgruntled colonel to gather his men and storm the presidential palace.
There is some danger, however, of agitation among the enlisted ranks, which comprise Pakistanis from the bottom of the socioeconomic ladder. This group is a prime breeding ground for Islamic fundamentalism -- but without leadership, it poses no threat.