Monday Oct 08 2001 | Updated 0054 hrs IST 1424 EST
If Pak is Talibanised, India may attack: US body
WASHINGTON IF fundamentalists replace President Pervez Musharraf's military regime, India could launch a pre-emptive strike against Pakistan's nuclear facilities, a US think tank has warned.
The Bush Administration "doesn't want to deal with the threat" that the Musharraf government might collapse for supporting the US against Afghanistan's Taliban and that a radical regime could take over, said David Albright, president of Washington DC-based Institute for Science and International Security.
The ISIS, which works on non-proliferation issues, insisted that security at Pakistan's nuclear sites needed to be tightened given the fact that there were Taliban sympathizers within the Pakistani nuclear establishment. Albright said some concerns about Pakistan's nuclear weapons would arise if the Musharraf government begins to lose control.
"Will scientists or those who control sensitive nuclear information, material and weapons do something because they are loyal to the Taliban or to the fundamentalists?" he asked.
"The other concern is, some people with the (nuclear) program may work with outsiders to seize it or to prevent it from being taken away by the Musharraf government or the US."
The worst situation, he said, was if in the aftermath of possible US attacks on the Taliban, "the Pakistani government becomes fundamentalist and suddenly we are confronted with a nuclear-armed Taliban-like regime in Islamabad."
In such a scenario, Albright wondered: "Would India then invade?"
In his opinion, India might decide it would be less expensive to invade an unstable Pakistan now and risk nuclear exchange rather than wait for a year by which time the "possibly fundamentalist" government would have complete control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
Albright acknowledged that at present Pakistan-India relations were not likely to worsen, "but certainly I think India, like all the other countries, are going to have to rethink the physical security at Pakistan's nuclear sites."
He said security at Pakistan's nuclear sites was not geared to withstand a suicide bomber or a suicide hijacker using a plane. "There are only a few facilities built to withstand a direct hit by a passenger airline, and Pakistan isn't one of them."
US Secretary of State Colin Powell was recently asked whether the current Pakistan government would remain stable and its nuclear weapons not fall into the hands of Saudi-born terrorist suspect Osama bin Laden's supporters. He replied that Musharraf had decided to back the US-led anti-terrorism campaign fully aware of the potential domestic consequences.
"He is supported by all his military commanders and others in the government," Powell had said. "So I am confident that Pakistan will remain stable and I have no concerns about their nuclear programs."
Albright, however, reiterated Pakistan's nuclear weapons and material were most vulnerable from within, in case of domestic instability. He said while Pakistan had secured its facilities against an outside threat given Islamabad's paranoia about an Indian strike, it may not have focused on an inside threat by sympathizers of radical elements in the country. (IANS)
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