1. people shouldn't engage in crystal balling (i'd submit that balling IS okay, tho!)
2. but we can engage in crystal balling if it's the right kind of balling: Carrol's tarbaby model
3. the reason why we should engage in planning for the tarbaby model is because it is the only one that works out well for a left social movement. everything else is not so great. e.g., if they were to have gone in and gotten ObL inc and brought him up for a court proceeding, or if we were to push for that end insistently and loudly and get as many as we can pushing for this goal, it is just out of the question because there wouldn't be much to organize around?
I can find no reference to "tarbaby" or "tar baby" in a search of my archives wherein Carrol has explained what he means. The only thing is a Fisk piece:
Hill: Because it's like a tar baby. I mean as soon as the United States undertakes a military solution, then a thousand more will instantly join the Jihadi or Bin Laden because, there you go, the United States has proved itself to be the great Satan once again. At 01:04 PM 10/12/01 -0500, Carrol Cox wrote:
>I tend to agree with Max & Doug on this -- to the extent that I care to
>monkey around with crystal balls.
>
>But the political point is that we (leftists) can't do anything about it
>if this happens. If it happens it happens.
>
>But what we should prepare for _now_ is the othe alternative, which I
>have labelled the tarbaby model. And we should predict that (as Fitch is
>doing) in order to mobilize people around that possibility. Nothing will
>be lost if we prepare and are wrong. A good deal will be lost if we
>don't prepare for that future.
>
>That, incidentally, is why polls and such like have no political
>importance whatever. They tell us nothing about what (say) 25% of the
>population will be thinking 12 months from now, and that is the
>important public opinion.
>
>Carrol
>
>
>Carrol