http://www.osu.edu/researchnews/archive/earlwarn.htm
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Researchers have developed a new statistical method that can help track the political and civil instability of countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan and others around the world.
While the tool is still new and under development, the researchers hope it could be used as an "early-warning system" that could alert world leaders to countries that may be moving toward political turmoil.
Using this tool, researchers have calculated numerical scores for countries around the world - including those in central Asia - that indicate, in real time, how stable the countries' political systems are.
These scores indicate that Afghanistan, Pakistan and other Central Asian countries could become destabilized in the political aftermath of the U.S.-led military attacks, said Craig Jenkins, one of the creators of the early warning system and a professor of sociology and political science at Ohio State University.
Military intervention by the United States in these countries may be enough to push the countries over the brink, he said.
"Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan have been unstable throughout much of the 1990s. Although they have been more stable recently, the military conflict may create mass protest and repression that stir a new round of instability," said Jenkins, who is also a researcher in Ohio State's Mershon Center for International Security.
"A lot depends on what actions the United State takes - how many troops we place there and how long they stay, how many civilians are killed."
Jenkins said the early warning system he helped develop is designed to help determine when the situation in places like Pakistan and Afghanistan has become critical.
"We are looking for a scientific method to help us to monitor when the political problems inside a country are about to lead to a major crisis," Jenkins said. "If we know early enough, there may be ways to lessen the impact of the crisis."
Full Story: http://www.osu.edu/researchnews/archive/earlwarn.htm
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