However, the war against the Taliban is not about terrorism. Its aim is to remove a political force that could not deliver on the deal it made with U.S. oil firms for the security of the planned pipeline through Afghanistan, as made clear by Unocal in a testimony before a U.S. congressional subcommittee (and in statements elsewhere). Plans for the invasion of Afghanistan were announced by Jane's Defense in March and were confirmed by Indian and Pakistani government officials in June and July. The leading part given to Bin Laden is in my view due mainly to the fact that he "owns" the Taliban and removing him would lead to massive defections, in effect disbanding the Taliban. Additionally, he happens to be the ideal bad guy, a reincarnation of the Ayatollah. His "Al Qaeda" is merely a red herring tossed to the media that can only be a serious international terrorist threat when manipulated and supported by governmental intelligence agencies. On its own, it is little more than a local bullies' gang, as all intelligence analysts worth their salt, including those in the FBI acting their part in the "war on terrorism" farce, full well know.
Therefore, a workable outcome to the war for the vested interests who have ordered it is the establishment of a civil or military authority in Afghanistan that can ensure the long-term safety of the pipeline that will carry oil and gas from the "stans", under total U.S. control, to the energy-hungry markets of China and India via Pakistan.
This authority will have to be extremely brutal in order to put up with Afghan tribal resistance as well as with attacks from fundamentalist guerillas. However even at this early stage of the war, it is clear that resistance to such a project will not be limited to these two elements and that the local populations will rise up en masse against it, and I would venture that this was not forseen by the planners. Dick "Go where the oil is" Cheney, for one, has gone on record with his simplistic views of the politics of oil. Accordingly, "friendly" regimes will topple, "rogue" states will pop up like mushrooms around the oil fields and the pipeline, and world opinion will also become sharply anti-American, as in the Vietnam era. In the end, the vested interest will lose not only the pipeline, but probably the oil fields as well. The U.S. and its oil-dependent allies will then have no choice but to attack the entire oil-producing region and attempt to occupy it, ushering in a new era of brute force that will make gunboat diplomacy look like the ultimate refinement in international relations.
So no, it will not work, but for different reasons. The question is, can they be stopped? Can we stop gibbering on about anthrax, Islam, and other smoke screens and concentrate on the real issue, i.e. the Great Game?
Hakki Alacakaptan