Washington wobbles

Charles Jannuzi jannuzi at edu00.f-edu.fukui-u.ac.jp
Thu Oct 25 20:05:27 PDT 2001



>The brits seem ready to send in a highly >specialised unit of 600 men
>trained in fighting in arctic conditions

What are they, the offspring of gurkas and Falkland sheepherder daughters?

Like I and others have said on this list: special forces won't get the job done. They are far too vulnerable to skilled use of concealed troops with light arms--about the only thing the Afghans excel at. Nor can they occupy and control in a policing action (like if a new Afghan gov't agreed to the presence). Not only can they not sustain themselves, but they don't even have the organizational structure to function like regular units.

A careful policing action would have to bring heavy stuff in through Pakistan, since Aghanistan, it bears repeating, is a landlocked country, and air transport has severe limitations--it can't lift things like tanks. And as also been pointed out on the list (and more than once), that too is a problem.

Right now the DoD is dropping really big freaking bombs on tunnel complexes where they think OBL might be. They are also patiently dropping huge amounts of bombs on entrenched Taliban, Arab and Pakistani troops in hopes that many Northern Alliance's soldiers will cross the threshold of puberty soon.

Suppose the Taliban report OBL as dead and buried in the bombed tunnels? Then what? A continued get-rid-of-the-Taliban campaign is likely to alienate the Afghanis.

Whoever thinks up what to do in that scenario ought to get a week's worth of Dunkin Donuts paid for by the Pentagon coffee fund. Oscillate on that.

Charles Jannuzi



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