Vietnam coffee exports set to hit record
HANOI Vietnam's robusta stocks are dwindling but total exports in the current crop year could still hit a record 900,000 tonnes, traders and exporters said.
Official data shows Vietnam will export an estimated 850,000 tonnes of beans in the 11 months to the end of August, a rise of 32.61 per cent from the same 1999/2000 period. It shipped 692,000 tonnes in the 1999/2000 crop year.
State exporters in the key coffee growing province of Daklak said that while stocks were running low, Vietnam could still ship another 30,000-50,000 tonnes before they were exhausted.
According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association Vietnam's 2000/01 crop yielded 840,000 tonnes of beans, including 8,000 tonnes of arabica. About 60,000 tonnes of beans were carried over from the 1999/2000 crop.
"Vietnam could ship 50,000 tonnes next month," a state coffee exporter in Daklak said. "Stocks are very low now and we are having difficulties buying beans from farmers." Another Daklak exporter put the total quantity of coffee left in the country at around 30,000 tonnes.
Exporters said they were offering beans from the upcoming harvest at a discount to London futures of $140 a tonne for shipment from November, against buyers' bids of $150.
London November was last traded at $490 a tonne, which would put a tonne of Vietnamese robusta grade two, five percent black and broken around $340 on FOB basis.
"We can't sell at $350, because that is the price prior to export quotations," the first exporter said, adding that he was not willing to offer for spot shipment due to low stocks.
Domestic prices were offered at 4,600-4,700 dong (about 31 cents) per kg this week in Daklak, and exporters have to add other costs to make an offer for export.
Exporters' quotations for grade two beans were put this week at $355-$360 a tonne, FOB Saigon Port, for spot shipment against $340-$350 last week.
Buyer's bids were around $350.
"There is demand around with buyers coming back to this market," a foreign trader in Ho Chi Minh City said. "It seems they could not buy from Indonesia."
Traders in Jakarta have said Indonesian exporters were raising quotations with robusta supplies drying up at the end of the harvest, while farmers and middlemen refused to sell at low prices.
Floods caused by heavy rains have hit Daklak in the past two weeks, killing eight people and inundating more than 2,00 homes, but waters have receded and caused insignificant damage to coffee trees, exporters said. They said rains should have stopped by the time harvesting of the new crop starts next month.
Vicofa has estimated lower investment by farmers in the face of low prices would reduce 2001/02 crop output to 11-12 million 60-kg bags, or 660,000-720,000 tonnes. (Reuters)
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