Good news from Russia

Chris Doss chrisd at russiajournal.com
Sat Sep 8 04:30:08 PDT 2001


And people wonder why Putin is so popular (70% approval rating at present):

Evening Standard (UK) 7 September 2001 Russian bear wakes from hibernation by James Hansam, in Moscow

RUSSIA is defying the US-led economic gloom with some unusually impressive statistics. In August, the Kremlin announced zero monthly inflation in an economy only recently ridiculed by Western pundits as a basket case. Real wages rose 5.4% and there was a trade surplus of Ј26bn in the first seven months of this year. Anecdotal evidence suggests the country - which suffered catastrophe three years ago with the collapse of the rouble - is achieving surprising buoyancy under the stern guidance of KGB spy-turned-President Vladimir Putin.

For example, British-based serviced offices provider Regus is planning to double capacity in St Petersburg and increase the number of work stations at its Moscow operation from 500 to 850.

Moscow has recently been operating at 90% capacity, well above international averages and, significantly for Regus, some 50% of its clients in the capital are Russian companies.

But Russia is also seeing more foreign business interest than at any time since the financial crash, which sparked a mass exodus. In March, engineering multinational John Brown - with links to Russia since the 1860s - returned, its new office headed by Gerry Preskey, one of Britain's most experienced business expats in Moscow. His recent forecast of huge oil profits stimulating the rest of the sleeping-bear economy has excited Russian commentators.

'People in the West - in America or England - say It'll never happen. They don't believe that good things can happen here,' he said. 'But I've been here for 30 years, I know what's going on. Things will get much better within the next three to five years and the Russian people deserve it.'

However, Russia has so far conspicuously failed to attract the level of Western investment that its supporters say it should. Many blame the litany of obstinate Russian afflictions such as poor legal guarantees and corrupt judges, bribe-taking officials, money-laundering, asset-stripping and the power of mafia rings. The upturn could give a 'boost to the shadow sector' - the still-huge black market - according to State statistics chairman Vladimir Sokolin.

Inflation, too, is expected to rise again after a seasonal drop, with a forecast annual rate of 19%. Yet that is still half the figure of two years ago and much lower than in the days of spiralling prices in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR. In reality, too, Russia has little insulation against a serious world downturn, should it come.

Despite this, major financial reforms have been implemented reducing tax evasion and improving the transparency of sales of State assets. Spending by the State, too, is coming under tighter control.

'For the second year in a row our expenses have been smaller than our revenues,' said Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. 'We are not building pyramids and there should be no defaults.''

For once, Russia can look at the world with more optimism.



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