< http://cns.miis.edu/research/wtc01/caconf.htm > Internal Conflicts and Security Concerns in Central Asia and Afghanistan Kenley Butler, Research Associate, NIS Nonproliferation Program
In response to the September 11 attack on America, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz issued a statement in which he said that the United States would "end states who sponsor terrorism." As evidence mounts that Usama bin Laden played a role in the terrorist attack on America, the likelihood of Western military action in Afghanistan increases.
There are reports in the international media about the possible use of military bases in Central Asia as a staging ground for multinational strikes on Afghanistan. The ability and willingness of the Central Asian states to either host staging grounds or at least to support retaliatory strikes is affected by internal security concerns in the region.
There are three main ongoing conflicts in the region: Elusive Political Peace and Entrenched Drug Empire in Tajikistan
Located in the remote southeast corner of the former Soviet Central Asia, Tajikistan was the poorest Soviet republic. Three-fifths of the population of Tajikistan is Tajik (Persian heritage) and one quarter is Uzbek, with a dwindling Russian minority. A mountainous country, it borders Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. The eastern half of the country, Badakhshan, is an "autonomous republic" populated with Ismai'li Shi'a Muslims who speak Shugnani or Rushani as a first language. The north is partly ethnic Uzbek and contains large population centers and most of the country's industry. During the Soviet era, the Uzbek minority in the north wielded power over the entire republic.
The divisions in Tajikistan led to a civil war (1992 - 1997) fought between a pro-Russian secularist group led by President Imomali Rahmonov (or Rakhmonov) on one side and the anti-Russian United Tajik Opposition (UTO) on the other. Forty thousand people were killed and the country's economy and industrial infrastructure were ruined. At the end of the war, members of UTO were united in a coalition government headed by Rahmonov. The Tajik government turned over control of its border with Afghanistan to Russia. Russia's 201st Motorized Rifle Division played a key role in the civil war, supporting the Rahmonov government and patrolling the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border. Russia's close military relationship with Tajikistan continues, and the use of Russian bases in Tajikistan for attacks against Afghanistan may be of interest to U.S. military planners.
Country-wide peace and internal security, however, remain elusive. Large areas of Tajikistan are not under government control and serve as a haven for Islamists and other groups. Armed insurgencies by marginalized clan-based groups, or those involved in the booming drug trade, are common in mountainous areas of the country and in the outskirts of the capital, Dushanbe. In addition, the prospect of a complete Taliban victory in northern Afghanistan would not only bring a permanent threat to Tajikistan's southern doorstep, but it would most likely cause a large influx of Afghan refugees to a country ill-equipped to deal with its own rapidly growing population.
Taliban vs. United Front, Afghanistan
A country of 22 million people, Afghanistan is bordered by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Pakistan, and China. Half of the population is ethnic Pushtun, who live in the south and west. Tajiks and Uzbeks live in the north, Hazaras in the center, Baluchis in the southwest, and Nuristanis near the Chitral border. The Soviet Union invaded in 1979 and, along with government troops, fought a guerilla war with U.S.-backed rebel forces, known as the Mujahideen. The Soviets withdrew in 1989 and in 1992 Burhanuddin Rabbani emerged as the victor after internal fighting among guerilla groups.
In October 1994, the Taliban Islamic militia emerged and gained widespread support, eventually taking over 90 percent of the country's territory, including the capital, Kabul, in September 1996. The Taliban were supported by Pakistan, which retains close ties with the Taliban leadership. A coalition of opposition leaders, known as the United Front, holds on to the other 10 percent of country, mainly in the Panshir Valley and Badakhshan, near the Tajik border. Russia and the states of Central Asia have given their tacit support (and humanitarian and military aid, in some cases) to the United Front, which was most recently headed by an ethnic Tajik, Akhmad Shah Massoud. On September 10, 2001, Massoud was assassinated, and many fear that as a result the United Front will collapse and the north will fall to the Taliban.
Only three states recognize the Taliban government--the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Much of the rest of the world has condemned its treatment of its citizens, particularly its women and girls. In November 1999, the United Nations imposed sanctions on the Taliban government for its failure to surrender Usama bin Laden for trial on charges of plotting the explosions that occurred at the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Islamists vs. Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan is the most populous of the Central Asian states, with 24 million people, 72 percent of whom are ethnic Uzbek. Tajiks make up a large minority, especially in the oasis cities of Samarkand and Bukhara. Uzbekistan borders Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The country contains Central Asia's largest industrial and transportation center (Tashkent) and sees itself as the regional leader. Russia's continued military presence in Tajikistan has caused Uzbekistan some concern, possibly contributing to Uzbekistan's decision to drop out of the Commonwealth of Independent States Collective Security Treaty (CST) in 1999. (The treaty was originally signed in Uzbekistan in 1992, and was often referred to as the "Tashkent Treaty.")
Uzbek President Islam Karimov has declared on numerous occasions that the country is seriously threatened by Islamic fundamentalists. One Islamist movement, known as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), has called for Karimov's overthrow and the establishment of a Muslim caliphate in the Ferghana Valley. Karimov intensified the crackdown on perceived Muslim extremists, particularly after bombs apparently targeted at him exploded in central Tashkent in February 1999. Estimates of the numbers of individuals imprisoned for Islamism range from the thousands to tens of thousands.
In August 1999, an armed group of perhaps 1,000 individuals claiming to be from the IMU entered southern Kyrgyzstan through Tajikistan and took two groups of hostages. The group declared their intention to bring down the Uzbek government and demanded unimpeded passage through Kyrgyzstan. After Kyrgyz forces were unable to expel the rebels, Uzbekistan bombed suspected rebel camps in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, without authorization from either country. The rebels withdrew after receiving a ransom for, and releasing, Japanese citizens that they had captured and held hostage.
In August 2000, IMU groups seized rural areas of Uzbekistan. It took at least two months for Uzbekistan to expel the rebels, who may have retreated to mountainous regions of Tajikistan. In July 2001, a group of rebels were unsuccessful in their attempt to seize a TV station in Kyrgyzstan that transmits programming from the region's three main stations to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.