Max Sawicky wrote:
>
> Incidentally, in probability theory, an event with probability
> X is no more likely after one trillion trials than after
> the first one, assuming what happens in a trial does not
> depend on what has happened in previous ones. Put another
> way, if the chance of rolling a five is one in six, after
> a million rolls, it is still one in six, even if your
> first million rolls came up six.
Yes. This is tricky, but probability, as I understand it, is not really a matter of prediction. So what we are talking about is a situation not before the millionth & one roll of the dice but _after_ all 1 million and one rolls have occurred, and we know the results of NONE of the rolls. What is the probability that when we open the record books to check on what has happened that someplace in that record a roll of five has occurred.
Carrol