--- Carrol Cox <cbcox at ilstu.edu> wrote: >
>
> Max Sawicky wrote:
> >
> > Incidentally, in probability theory, an event with probability
> > X is no more likely after one trillion trials than after
> > the first one, assuming what happens in a trial does not
> > depend on what has happened in previous ones. Put another
> > way, if the chance of rolling a five is one in six, after
> > a million rolls, it is still one in six, even if your
> > first million rolls came up six.
Hrrrmmmm .... When I quit this lark and open a casino, I promise there'll be free drinks for you night and day, Max, as long as you promise to stand by the roulette wheel and tell people that. Rolling a million sixes is pretty good evidence that a process which you thought was random, wasn't.
"Everybody knows that the dice are loaded. Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed. Everybody knows the war is over. Everybody knows the good guys lost."
Leonard Cohen.
It has just struck me that I have absolutely no idea what the context was for this post or what point either side was trying to make, and am just nitpicking on a point of statistics for the sake of doing so. Which rather reinforces my earlier point that bum-talking is an insidious pleasure.
dd
===== “Let the jury consider their verdict,” the King said, for about the twentieth time that day. “No, no!” said the Queen. “Sentence first–verdict afterwards.” [...] “Off with her head!” the Queen shouted at the top of her voice. Nobody moved.
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