Civil Liberties

Max Sawicky sawicky at bellatlantic.net
Thu Sep 20 05:33:06 PDT 2001


-----Original Message----- From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Zak McGregor Well at least you'll be right once in your life.

You explained it right, but Luke is channeling wisdom from a higher power.

mbs

Actually, this is probably the only time I'll ever say this: Max is quite correct. The previous million rolls have no outcome on the fate of the next roll. Why? Well, because the chance of throwing 1 six is, unsuprisingly 1/6 (1 in 6). To do it twice is (1/6)^2, or 1/6*6 or 1/36. To roll a million consecutive sixes then is (1/6)^1 000 000. However, the next roll is still 1/6. The probability of getting 1 000 001 rolls of six in a row is (1/36)^1 000 001, but what we need to take into consideration is that you've already "used" (ie beaten the odds) on the first 1 000 000 throws. I hope I explained that OK... ;-/

Cheers

Zak



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