Cheers, Ken Hanly
----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Hanly <khanly at mb.sympatico.ca> To: <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2001 10:22 AM Subject: Re: Civil Liberties
> Max is right only if you use a certain a priori mathematical theory of
> probability. But there are other types of theories that are empirical. For
> example a common frequency view would come to quite a different
conclusion.
>
> Take the case of one die. A mathematical theory would predict that the
> probability of a six turning up is 1/6 precisely as Max and Zak would
claim.
> But why use this theory. Why not base probability on what happens as a
> matter of fact.
>
> If u throw the die just 60 times and it comes up six all the time, on the
> frequency theory the probabililty would be 60/60 or 1. Only an idiot or
God
> would not bet on the six turning up--assuming a six will not turn up.. If
it
> happened 600 times only an imbecile would think the probability on the
next
> throw was 1/6. And if it happened 6000 times then only Zak and Max or
would
> think the probablility was 1/6. You people are like NC economists wedded
to
> math models that have no connection to reality in situations like this.
>
> Ok blast me. I dont know much about probability...
>
> Cheers, Ken Hanly
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Max Sawicky <sawicky at bellatlantic.net>
> To: <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
> Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2001 7:33 AM
> Subject: RE: Civil Liberties
>
>
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
> > [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Zak McGregor
> > Well at least you'll be right once
> > in your life.
> >
> > You explained it right, but Luke is
> > channeling wisdom from a higher power.
> >
> > mbs
> >
> > Actually, this is probably the only time I'll ever say this: Max is
> > quite correct. The previous million rolls have no outcome on the fate of
> > the next roll. Why? Well, because the chance of throwing 1 six is,
> > unsuprisingly 1/6 (1 in 6). To do it twice is (1/6)^2, or 1/6*6 or 1/36.
> > To roll a million consecutive sixes then is (1/6)^1 000 000. However,
> > the next roll is still 1/6. The probability of getting 1 000 001 rolls
> > of six in a row is (1/36)^1 000 001, but what we need to take into
> > consideration is that you've already "used" (ie beaten the odds) on the
> > first 1 000 000 throws. I hope I explained that OK... ;-/
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Zak
>