Civil Liberties

Ken Hanly khanly at mb.sympatico.ca
Thu Sep 20 08:58:08 PDT 2001


Perhaps I could put my point in another way. If you get a six turning up every time in 60 tries you probably have a loaded die. Using the mathematical theory of probability in such circumstances is inappropriate--to use a safe term. If you are a gambler you would be far better off to use the frequency theory. You could be wrong. Maybe an evil demon is trying to con you, but dont bet on it...

Cheers, Ken Hanly

----- Original Message ----- From: Ken Hanly <khanly at mb.sympatico.ca> To: <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com> Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2001 10:22 AM Subject: Re: Civil Liberties


> Max is right only if you use a certain a priori mathematical theory of
> probability. But there are other types of theories that are empirical. For
> example a common frequency view would come to quite a different
conclusion.
>
> Take the case of one die. A mathematical theory would predict that the
> probability of a six turning up is 1/6 precisely as Max and Zak would
claim.
> But why use this theory. Why not base probability on what happens as a
> matter of fact.
>
> If u throw the die just 60 times and it comes up six all the time, on the
> frequency theory the probabililty would be 60/60 or 1. Only an idiot or
God
> would not bet on the six turning up--assuming a six will not turn up.. If
it
> happened 600 times only an imbecile would think the probability on the
next
> throw was 1/6. And if it happened 6000 times then only Zak and Max or
would
> think the probablility was 1/6. You people are like NC economists wedded
to
> math models that have no connection to reality in situations like this.
>
> Ok blast me. I dont know much about probability...
>
> Cheers, Ken Hanly
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Max Sawicky <sawicky at bellatlantic.net>
> To: <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
> Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2001 7:33 AM
> Subject: RE: Civil Liberties
>
>
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
> > [mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Zak McGregor
> > Well at least you'll be right once
> > in your life.
> >
> > You explained it right, but Luke is
> > channeling wisdom from a higher power.
> >
> > mbs
> >
> > Actually, this is probably the only time I'll ever say this: Max is
> > quite correct. The previous million rolls have no outcome on the fate of
> > the next roll. Why? Well, because the chance of throwing 1 six is,
> > unsuprisingly 1/6 (1 in 6). To do it twice is (1/6)^2, or 1/6*6 or 1/36.
> > To roll a million consecutive sixes then is (1/6)^1 000 000. However,
> > the next roll is still 1/6. The probability of getting 1 000 001 rolls
> > of six in a row is (1/36)^1 000 001, but what we need to take into
> > consideration is that you've already "used" (ie beaten the odds) on the
> > first 1 000 000 throws. I hope I explained that OK... ;-/
> >
> > Cheers
> >
> > Zak
>



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list