>* The bottom line is that we are anticipating a mild recession
>lasting through the first quarter of next year. The pivotal
>assumption underpinning that outlook: the anticipated acute phase of
>military action does not spill over much beyond the early months of
>next year, and that there are no further terrorist attacks. If that
>assumption holds, a recovery in confidence, ample policy stimulus
>and de-levered household and corporate balance sheets should lay the
>platform for a robust rebound in spending over the latter half of
>2002.