GS view

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Sep 21 16:33:54 PDT 2001


No, not golden showers, Goldman Sachs.


>* The bottom line is that we are anticipating a mild recession
>lasting through the first quarter of next year. The pivotal
>assumption underpinning that outlook: the anticipated acute phase of
>military action does not spill over much beyond the early months of
>next year, and that there are no further terrorist attacks. If that
>assumption holds, a recovery in confidence, ample policy stimulus
>and de-levered household and corporate balance sheets should lay the
>platform for a robust rebound in spending over the latter half of
>2002.



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