September 21, 2001
Trouble looms for Musharraf, US, warns Jane's By a correspondent Any overt Pakistan support for the projected United States action against suspected terrorist Osama Bin Laden and his protectors, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, could have disastrous consequences for both the US-led alliance and for Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf. The warning is carried in a recent story published in Jane's, the premier intelligence and defence magazine. The story argues that Islamabad will be increasingly hard-pressed to answer questions relating to the links between two Pakistan-based Islamic militant groups and Bin Laden. The two groups, identified by Jane's as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Tayiba, had been identified earlier in a US State Department report on Patterns of Global Terrorism for 2000. Though Islamabad has denied any official involvement with these groups, intelligence reports indicate close ties between the two outfits and senior members of Pakistan’s military and security services. Citing intelligence sources, the Jane's report focussed on allegations Pakistan has hosted training camps for militant Islamic groups, provided them with financial aid, allowed Pakistan to be used as the preferred transit route for Bin Laden's Al-Qa’eda outfit, provided the ailing Bin Laden medical assistance including dialysis at a military medical facility in Peshawar, and encouraged links between Bin Laden, the Taliban, and Pakistan's own Inter-Services Intelligence. Most significantly, Jane's points out that both the Taliban and Al-Qa’eda would have found it difficult to have continued functioning without aid and support from Islamabad -- which, it is argued, places Pakistan squarely in the category of state-sponsors of terrorism. Given this situation, it is argued, Musharraf is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. On the one hand, Islamabad has no option but to give in to the demands of the US for assistance in potential action against Bin Laden and the Taliban. At the same time, providing such assistance could put Musharraf, who captured power via a military coup in 1999, at odds with Pakistan's military and security services, both of which have close ties with Bin Laden and the Taliban. Simultaneously, Musharraf risks provoking the wrath of home-grown Islamic terrorist outfits, who have threatened retaliation if Pakistan helps the US in its proclaimed war against Bin Laden and the Afghan leadership. The analysis assumes greater significance in light of recent developments. A Gallup poll across major Pakistani cities on September 20 indicated that 63 per cent of the population demanded that Pakistan stand by Afghanistan and in opposition to the US. Against this, a miniscule 7 per cent wanted Pakistan to support US action against Bin Laden and Afghanistan. Underlining the popular mood, major religious parties including both factions of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Jamaat-e-Islami and other right-wing groups announced plans to hold rallies after noon prayers on Friday. "We want to register our protest against the impending US strikes on Afghanistan," Maulan Usman, coordinator of the Taleban support group, said. Though the organisers have said the rallies will be peaceful, the Pakistan government is bracing for possible trouble. And indications are that in the coming weeks, as the US war machinery moves into battle stations, these protests will only intensify. Musharraf thus is vulnerable on two crucial fronts. And if, argues Jane's, he were to be ousted in course of an anti-West, pro-Taliban uprising of Islamic militants and a section of the Pakistan army, the prospect of a full-scale regional conflagration could become very real. Read Also: 63 per cent Pakistanis oppose US strikes Pak braces for trouble on Friday London clerics issue fatwa against Musharraf The Attack on America: The Complete Coverage EXTERNAL LINK For Further Coverage and Information, you may visit www.saja.org/roundup