Dave,
The following articles outline a little known terms of reference paper released in 1995 by a subcommittee of the Pentagon’s SAG (Strategic Advisory Group), reporting to then Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Henry Chiles.
This paper has been used as a baseline for other SAG subcommittees in "expanding the Deterrence of the Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction."
The work reflects how the Pentagon has recently tried to adjust U.S. nuclear doctrine to the changes that occurred with the demise of the Soviet Union and the increasing focus on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, together with actual creation of incidents designed to create fear and disruption via spectacular displays of terrorism as we so horribly witnessed earlier this month.
The result was a eight-page outline of deterrence theory and its potential application against enemies armed with weapons of mass destruction in the Post-Cold War era. The study emphasized a value-based deterrence, holding at risk those assets that mean most to an opponent.
It seems, however, that Osama bin Laden nothing if not a keen first-hand observer of America’s shadow selves, her weaknesses, contradictions and vulnerabilities via his 1980s encounters with her “chocolate and cream” central intelligence agency officers -- has adopted this proposed policy as his own. While the Bush and Clinton Administration muddled and lobbed $2M missiles at $10 tents, Osama’s army have made it clear how and where it will strike.
These articles to my mind at least show that the West in particular, the USA -- has given Bin Laden an excellent lesson in an how to develop an effective military philosophy of deterrent-directed engagement with an enemy. In fact, it is becoming embarrassingly obvious that he has outfoxed everyone.
The SAG/Bin Laden theory is simply this: spell out clearly your demands, then make it evident via verbal and strong, written warning that you will back up your demands with actions, then escalate to an act of extreme violence directed at the lives and values of the enemy if behavior is not modified. Just as the USA strikes with impunity at targets inside Iraq, Sudan, Afghanistan (the list goes on) when the Administration wishes to send a deterrent or disapproving message, so Bin Laden has concluded his own political instruments of terror have every justification to attack the enemy where he lives to send similar messages. The 6500 dead are just collateral damage to him, like the millions of civilian dead from the West’s own real (and contemplated) wars.
bin Laden has been the first man since Harry Truman to actually push the button on the enemy, even if it was only a powerful tactical warning strike. Difference being of course Truman pushed the button to stop a war, bin Laden pushed it to start one.
The handwriting has been on the wall for months, years; yet it was American self-obsession which allowed us to be caught flat footed by our evil doppelgangers and former “allies” Hussein and Osama. It is foolish to pretend that Osama simply materialized from thin air to punish Americans. He and Hussein are nightmarish demons the United States and UK government took advantage of over many, many years. It is essential that Americans wake up to this, and quickly, lest more nasties be let loose (ie quickly getting into bed with heroin trafficking tribes in Northern Afghanistan who happen to dislike the Taliban).
Truly chilling reading.
Mark White
Military Study Mulled Deterrence of 'Fear'
By Walter Pincus, Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, July 5, 2001; Page A09 <http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A13669-2001Jul3>http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A13669-2001Jul3
“Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence” (Unclassifed Pentagon SAG report)
<http://www.nautilus.org/nukestrat/USA/Advisory/essentials95.html>http://www.nautilus.org/nukestrat/USA/Advisory/essentials95.html (introduction)
<http://www.nautilus.org/nukestrat/USA/Advisory/Essentials95.txt>http://www.nautilus.org/nukestrat/USA/Advisory/Essentials95.txt (text of report, also available as a pdf)
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