Cheers, Ken Hanly
The Globe and Mail September 28, 2001
New game afoot in Central Asia
Less than a year ago, Russia tried to persuade Washington to participate
in joint military strikes against the Taliban, but U.S. leaders refused. Now, for the first time, U.S. and German leaders are expressing sympathy for the Russian "challenge" in Chechnya.
By Geoffrey York
Dushanbe, Tajikistan -- Is it the end of the Great Game, or merely the beginning of a dangerous new joust for influence?
Optimists have been proclaiming a new era of Russian-American co-operation in Central Asia, the long-time battleground of global superpowers seeking control of this strategic region.
In the 19th century, it involved an intricate competition between the ambitious empires of Britain and Russia, known as the Great Game. More recently, it was the United States and Russia that sparred for influence.
After a conciliatory speech by Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, Washington and Moscow seem to have abandoned their differences and agreed to unite with the Central Asian republics in a coalition to fight terrorism.
But a closer look suggests that a new game is afoot. Behind the broad cover of the antiterrorism campaign, the autocratic leaders of the former Soviet republics -- particularly Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan -- are pursuing agendas that have little to do with global co-operation and more to do with narrow interests.
The danger is that the Russian and Central Asian strongmen could exploit the antiterrorism rhetoric to justify a crackdown on Islamic opposition factions, triggering a violent backlash. Instead of stabilizing the region, the antiterrorism campaign could fuel deeper long-term conflicts.
The Kremlin and the Central Asia republics have long been worried about Islamic fundamentalist groups in the region -- especially the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but also smaller Islamic rebel groups that have emerged in recent years. They are seen as the only alternative to the corrupt ex-Communist strongmen who have ruled these republics for more than a decade.
Uzbekistan, the most populous of the Central Asian republics, hopes the U.S.-led coalition can crush the Taliban and provide cover for its own ruthless crackdown on the Islamic opposition. It has jailed thousands of Muslims, shut down hundreds of mosques, arrested religious leaders and prohibited bearded men and headscarf-wearing women from attending university.
By allowing U.S. aircraft to be based on his territory, Uzbek President Islam Karimov is bolstering his power and dampening Western criticism of his human-rights abuses.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, too, hope their co-operation with the U.S.-led coalition will help weaken their Islamic opposition movements and destroy the Taliban regime that has inspired and supported many fundamentalist groups in the region.
"Everybody is looking to get something out of this," a Western diplomat in Moscow said.
Russia first tried to maintain its grip over the region. Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov insisted that Central Asia was "within the zone of competence" of the Commonwealth of Independent States -- the Moscow-dominated organization of post-Soviet states. In a reflection of the anti-Western suspicions of the Russia military lobby, Mr. Ivanov declared that he saw "no reason whatsoever, even hypothetical" for any Western military forces to operate from Central Asia.
Soon, however, it became clear that Uzbekistan and Tajikistan were willing to co-operate with the United States. There were persistent reports that U.S. aircraft had already landed at bases in the two countries. Washington was exploiting contacts cultivated through years of military co-operation with the Central Asian republics after they became independent in 1991.
Russia sensed that its influence was being eroded. Mr. Putin's pledge of co-operation this week -- and his announcement that he would not object to the U.S. use of Central Asian territory for the antiterrorism operation -- was partly a face-saving attempt to take credit for a trend already in motion.
Russia had other strategic reasons for its co-operation with Washington. If the United States is planning to overthrow the Taliban, the Kremlin desperately wants to be involved in the process of installing a new government in Afghanistan to safeguard its regional influence. Moscow, too, wants to exploit the antiterrorism campaign for its own crackdown on Muslim rebels.
In the Russian case, the Islamic rebels are in Chechnya. There are strong indications that the West is now muting its criticism of the brutal Russian military operation in Chechnya, in gratitude for Moscow's co-operation in the antiterrorism campaign. For the first time, U.S. and German leaders this week began expressing sympathy for the Russian "challenge" in Chechnya.
The Kremlin realizes that the U.S. campaign could actually strengthen the Russian strategic goal of defeating Islamic radicalism in Moscow's soft southern underbelly. For years, Russia has been trying to convince the West of the gravity of the Taliban threat, claiming that the Taliban was on the verge of invading the Central Asian republics -- although there was never clear evidence aside from an occasional flight of rhetoric from a Taliban leader.
Less than a year ago, Russia tried to persuade Washington to participate in joint military strikes against the Taliban, but U.S. leaders refused. Now, the United States is ready to strike, and Russia is moving closer to its own goals in the region.
There is, in fact, evidence that Islamic radicals are making Central Asia a top target for future expansion. Hundreds of Central Asian students have graduated from pro-Taliban schools in Pakistan.
But some analysts say the Central Asian republics have created this threat by cracking down so ruthlessly on Muslim groups.
"Uzbekistan and Tajikistan must be encouraged to abandon their primitive anti-Islamic policies," Moscow historian Rustam Shukurov wrote this week. "It is these anti-Islamic policies that have created fertile ground for the likes of the Taliban."