Observer Worldview
Kamal Ahmed in Crawford, Texas Sunday April 7, 2002 The Observer
Tony Blair will today give the clearest signal yet that Britain is ready to back the United States and go to war against Iraq in a high-risk strategy that could create damaging splits in his own party.
In his clearest statement yet that he backs America's stance that 'inaction against Iraq is not an option', the Prime Minister will use a speech in Texas to spell out the need to deal with Saddam Hussein, whom he will accuse of developing weapons of mass destruction in 'flagrant abuse' of international law.
Ratcheting up the rhetoric against the Iraqi dictator, Blair will equate the military action in Afghanistan with future policy against Saddam.
Blair, whose two-day summit with President George Bush ends today, is believed to have discussed the military options with the President at a one-to-one dinner on Friday night at Bush's Texas ranch.
Last month, The Observer revealed that a US position paper presented to Britain had said that up to 25,000 British troops could be used as part of an invasion force.
'Just as after September 11 action in Afghanistan was calm, measured, sensible but firm, so the approach to Iraq will be all these things again,' Blair is expected to say.
'Leaving Iraq to develop weapons of mass destruction in flagrant breach of no less than nine UN resolutions, refusing still to allow weapons inspectors back to do their work properly is not an option.' The words are an echo of the Bush's speech last month, when he said inaction in Iraq 'was not an option'.
Blair's statement in an America that strongly backs military action contrasts with briefings in Britain playing down this prospect.
Downing Street officials insist no decision has been taken on military action, and say that if Iraq agreed to full access for UN inspectors, Saddam may avoid attack.
The Prime Minister, who received a CIA briefing at Crawford on the latest terrorist threats, signalled that he agreed with Bush that it was time for Saddam to be ousted.
'It has always been our policy that Iraq would be a better place without Saddam Hussein,' Blair said. 'We know he has been developing these weapons. We know that those weapons constitute a threat. The issue has to be dealt with.
'What happened on the 11 September was a call to us to make sure we didn't repeat the mistake of allowing groups to develop destructive capability and hope they weren't going to use it.'
But in an interview with NBC television, Blair refused to rule out the military option. Pressed on whether this was 'down the road potentially', he said: 'It depends on what happens.
'As President Bush has said, there's no doubt there is a problem. We have to deal with it.'
It is the furthest Blair has gone on the chances of military action. On Friday Bush said that 'I have made up my mind that Saddam needs to go', pushing Blair to sound a tougher note on Iraq which many in the Cabinet are not comfortable with.
In his speech Blair, treading a fine line between a hawkish White House which he wants to support and growing backbench unease, will say that only by engaging in problems around the world is it possible to stop the events of 11 September ever happening again.
In remarks that will be seen as a signal to America to take a full role in the Middle East, he will also say that isolationism will only lead to 'chaos and carnage'.
'Globalisation means there is a new world of interdependence,' he is expected to say. '11 September underlined that. There is a real danger that we forget the lessons of 9/11. Human beings recover from tragedy, the memory becomes less fraught. That is the healthy part of living.
'But we should learn from our experience. The most obvious lesson of 9/11 is [that the] world works better if the US and the European Union stand together.'
He will say the international community should act as peace brokers, a message that will play well to restless elements in the Labour Party which believe that the Prime Minister has been too willing to back the bellicose language of the President over Iraq.
Next month Blair will also push for a relaxation of some of the UN sanctions against Iraq to allow more humanitarian aid into the country.
He will say today: 'We should work hard to broker peace where conflict threatens a region's stability because we know the dangers of contagion.
'The plight of the Middle East would make the hardest heart break. To anyone familiar with Northern Ireland the pattern is sickeningly predictable [when] the political process breaks down.'