Last post for the day.
Chris Doss The Russia Journal ------------------
This article was published in The Russia Journal ISSUE No.12 (155), DATE: 2002-04-05 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- Georgia on my mind
By ALEXANDER GOLTS / Special to The Russia Journal Russia’s home-grown conspiracy theorists must be having a field day – no sooner did American "green berets" arrive in Georgia then tensions flared up in Abkhazia. Georgian semi-military groups active along the line dividing the breakaway region from Georgia kidnapped four Russian peacekeepers. This was followed by several terrorist explosions in Abkhazia itself.
Abkhaz leaders say that Georgian troops under U.S. command will invade Abkhazia within the coming weeks. The biggest surprise came when Aslan Abashidze, the leader of Adjaria and Georgia’s official representative at negotiations with Abkhazia, suddenly said he felt certain that the Americans would "train soldiers not to fight terrorists, but to bring order to other regions of Georgia."
"Who can guarantee that the American-trained Georgian troops won’t begin operations in Adjaria?" Abashidze said.
It’s no surprise that Georgian politicians also went into a frenzy. The Georgian parliament passed resolutions, each in harsher terms than the one before it, demanding the immediate return of refugees to Abkhazia and the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the region.
Officials in Tbilisi don’t rule out the possibility of resorting to force if negotiations with Abkhazia fail to reach a solution. Georgia also refuses to withdraw its troops from the Kodor Gorge, where they are banned from stationing troops under the terms of a 1994 peace agreement.
But though all the fuss might lead one to believe otherwise, U.S. military aid to Georgia isn’t so large-scale at all. The Americans will send some 150 military instructors to Georgia to help train the Army there. Unofficial sources say the Americans will train a Georgian special-forces battalion, a mountain and motorized infantry battalions and a tank company from the 21st brigade, which amounts to a maximum of 3,000-4,000 servicemen.
The United States has also given the Georgians 10 Iroquois helicopters that date from 30 years ago, from the time of the Vietnam War. There is information that only six of these helicopters can actually fly and that the other four will be dismantled and used for spare parts. The Americans are already training Georgian pilots. The Pentagon also plans to create a control and command system for the entire Georgian Army. Finally, the United States recently gave the Georgians 1,000 uniforms, 3,000 pairs of boots and several mine detectors and computers.
Given that the Georgian Armed Forces amounts to 20,000 servicemen, this U.S. assistance is a significant help. The U.S. military’s plan will give Georgia small (12,000-15,000 soldiers and officers) but quite effective Armed Forces. But this won’t happen overnight.
During their recent Kodzhori training exercises, Georgian special forces put on a good display of their skills, but no more than 250 people took part in the exercises, and there are grounds for believing that this represents the total of Georgia’s combat-ready troops.
Under the Pentagon plan, each of the Georgian battalions will reach an initial level of combat readiness only after six months of intensive training. In other words, there can be no question of military operations in the coming 12 to 18 months. There can also be no question of any direct U.S. participation in any future operations. There’s no need to be a military expert to see what lengths the Americans go to in concentrating their forces before sending their soldiers into battle. The presence of a mere 150 Americans is a firm guarantee that the United States is not planning any military operation in Georgia.
It must be said that three to four highly mobile, American-trained and -armed battalions is a force to be reckoned with in the South Caucasus, and it can’t be excluded that such a force could wipe out Abkhaz semi-military groups during military operations. But the fact remains that even the best American instructors can’t teach the most important skills – how to capture and occupy territory (and what other aim could a military operation in Abkhazia have?). This is because the Americans don’t have these skills themselves. The Vietnam debacle was enough to put American generals off attempts to control rebel territory for good. Significantly, the Americans made it clear right from the start of military operations in Afghanistan that they were not aiming to "bring peace to the country."
It’s clear that 3,000 to 4,000 soldiers wouldn’t be enough to "pacify" Abkhazia’s population. Any sane military official or politician should understand that the arrival of 150 U.S. military instructors isn’t going to change the balance of forces in the region. The most Americans can hope to achieve is to train troops to liquidate the terrorists in the Pankisi Gorge.
The Americans’ arrival has acted as a catalyst for all the negative processes in the region. But does this mean Russia should join this general hysteria? After quieting down when President Vladimir Putin said that Georgia is free to look after its security as it sees fit, Russian politicians are once again in an uproar.
Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said that the arrival of U.S. military personnel in Georgia could force Russia to abandon its plans to withdraw its troops. (Under the Istanbul agreements, Russia has to withdraw two of its four bases.) General Staff representatives who wish to remain anonymous have been telling journalists that the Americans’ real aim is to gather intelligence information on what Russian troops are up to in Chechnya.
Rather than getting worked up, Moscow strategists should be thinking about whether or not it is in Russia’s interests for Georgia to have an effective army. If the Russian military seriously wants to see the terrorists in the Pankisi Gorge liquidated, then Russia should want Georgia to have a strong army.
It’s another issue that Moscow and Washington should seek guarantees that Tbilisi won’t try using these troops to solve the Abkhazia issue by force.