I agree with most of your analysis, but...
You wouldn't know this from reading Western reporting, but the Russian media is far from being under the total control of the Kremlin. The national TV outlets are no basically under government control, but print media is still beholden to various, contending centers of power. In the regions, they are basically controlled by local city/regional governments, which are more often than not Communist and anti-Putin... You can read vehemently anti-Kremlin stuff in the mass media in Russia (more often than not, these papers may have pictures of Stalin on them, but be that as it may, they do exist).
Also, the KPRF has actually adopted an anti-Chechen War stance as of late.
I believe also the KPRF's popularity is increasing, not dimishing. They have control of over half the territory of Russia now. You are correct in asserting that Putin's primary backers are the middle class, but the middle class in Russia, while growing, is still pretty dinky by Western standards (something like 5% going by official statistics, probably more like 15% when you take into account the shadow economy). The working class is KPRF territory.
PS. Russia has now leapfrogged over Saudi Arabia as the world's No. 1 exporter of oil.
Chris Doss The Russia Journal --------- Date: Mon, 08 Apr 2002 07:05:10 +0100 From: Chris Burford <cburford at gn.apc.org> Subject: Re: Communists purged from Russian parliament ??
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At 07/04/02 11:14 -0300, you wrote:
>-How do you think this will end up??
>
> Alexandre Fenelon
Presumably the title got shortened and should have said purged from Russian parliament key positons.
The article said the issue was:
>Zyuganov's attack followed this week's move by the pro-Kremlin centrist
>majority to strip Communists of leadership in seven commitees in the lower
>house, the State Duma. Zyuganov harshly assailed the move Friday, saying
>the Kremlin had broken its earlier promise to respect an earlier agreement
>on distribution of top Duma positions.
Chris Doss will know the balance of forces better than me, but I presume that Putin feels stronger now that he has removed the oligarch's last access to the main media. He no longer needs the alliance with the Communists and is willing publicly to break that alliance.
Zyuganov can appeal to some old fashioned sources of dissent, but Putin presumably counts on the Communists continuing to decline in their electoral popularity. They are probably unable to address the consumer interests of the middle voters, particularly at a time when the Russian economy has been expanding after the depth of the financial crisis at the end of the 90's and oil prices are high. In view of Putin's admiration of Tony Blair, it is probably his political forces that are expert in addressing consumer attitudes.
Internationally the insecurity in the Middle East means that the USA and Europe will need Russia more rather than less, and Putin will get some contacts with these powers that are flattering to his image, while he can appear also something of a patriot.
Meanwhile the alliance with the west protects him from too much international criticism about Chechnya, which Zyuganov did not highlight.
As for a call for "massive" demonstrations on May 1st that has probably been anticipated as it will not be the first time that the party has called for massive demonstrations. Rather, they and the security forces probably just calculate that this is part of the skirmishing for the next elections . Presumably the Communists' access to the media is restricted by its domination by government forces.
Chris Burford