Russian economic growth

ChrisD(RJ) chrisd at russiajournal.com
Tue Apr 9 06:23:48 PDT 2002


Higher growth goals risky for Russia-deputy min By Darya Korsunskaya

MOSCOW, April 9 (Reuters) - Russia would take a risk if it increased its medium-term economic targets despite President Vladimir Putin's criticism of government economic plans, Deputy Economy and Trade Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on Tuesday.

Putin told the cabinet on Monday that if Russia achieved even the rate of growth seen in the government's most optimistic scenario, it would still seriously lag behind developed nations. He called for "more ambitious goals."

Dvorkovich said if the government planned faster economic development, and then failed to achieve the new targets, there could be a gap between its budgetary obligations and real resources.

"We could set higher economic growth rates, if there is power to curb social obligations, which is difficult to do ahead of elections," he told a seminar in answer to a question about Putin's remarks.

Russia is to elect a new parliament in December 2003.

Government forecasts put cumulative Russian growth by 2005 at 15 percent at the most pessimistic and 17.5 percent at best.

"In reality (growth targets) allow us to move closer (to developed states), but not quickly enough. In principle, the government's policy should be aimed at higher growth rates, but to do this, all branches of power should have such goals to allow for such rates," Dvorkovich said.

"But planning budget policies based on high rates of development is risky and dangerous and I am not sure that we should change medium-term targets."

RUSSIA BACK ON GROWTH PATH

Russia's economy, boosted by high oil prices and a 1998 rouble devaluation, has slowed down in recent months, with Economy and Trade Ministry data showing that gross domestic product growth between September and January was close to nil.

GDP slipped in January, although February saw growth of 0.3 percent.

Dvorkovich said the economy had become livelier in the second quarter.

"There are no reasons to say that the growth is sustainable. But nevertheless it is positive and makes us happy," he said, but provided no data for March.

He also said the government was optimistic about cutting CPI this year to 12-14 percent from 18.6 percent last year.

However, he said budget revenues were not high enough for Russia to live through the 2003 foreign debt payment peak entirely painlessly.

"We cannot say that the 2003 problem does not exist at all," he said. "Although we do not have a debt problem in principle, the budget situation is not so ideal that we can say we have no problems at all."



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