> We neoliberals at least have broad agreement that
developing-country
> governments are corrupt, by and large (East Asia
excepted) lack the
> competence to run successful developmental states,
and hence the best
> chance is to try to shrink them to keep them out of
the way of
> economic development for a generation or so. We have
broad agreement
> that maximizing economic contact--trade, investment,
et cetera--is
> our best chance for accelerating technology transfer
to poor
> economies and hence putting ourselves on the road to
what may for the
> first time in history become a truly human world.
Fair enough. However, how many countries in economic history have industrialized and become something approximating decent middle-class societies under these conditions? As far as I know, the answer is zero.
I am by no means an expert on this subject. However, from my naive perspective, all first world countries seem to share these characteristics:
1) They industrialized under far more favorable conditions, with fewer competitors and less ravaged environments. 2) They nurtured and protected infant industries via many measures. They continue to do so today. 3) They developed empires that helped their development immeasurably (England, etc.) or were in privileged positions within an empire (South Korea, etc.). 4) They blatantly disregarded intellectual property laws.
It may also be important that they a) accelerated their technological development by fighting giant, humanity-threatening wars, and b) had elites that were forced to democratize by these wars (for instance, the boost the Cold War gave to the civil rights movement). But I am less sure about this.
Certainly I don't know what the answer is for the third world. Maybe there is no answer -- or rather, it's possible that any real progress would require a gigantic and essentially impossible revolution. But I think the chances that the answer is neoliberalism are slim to none.
In any case, the idea that there IS one answer is almost certainly incorrect. In a better world, developing countries would be able to make their own decisions about what to do, and everyone would learn from and imitate the successes.
What do you say, Professor DeLong?
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