Chris Doss The Russia Journal ---------------------------- Russia sees grain harvest of at least 75 mln T By Aleksandras Budrys
MOSCOW, April 15 (Reuters) - Russian officials issued their first forecast for 2002 grain output on Monday, predicting a drop to possibly 75 million tonnes from last year's 85 million.
But analysts said the early estimate was highly tentative.
"The minimum harvest we need this year is 75 million tonnes by clean weight," Deputy Agriculture Minister Vladimir Alginin told Reuters. "This is an early forecast, which we may adjust some time in May."
Analysts said no accurate forecast could be made without further data.
"As a rule, such forecasts are based mainly on previous years' statistics, which do not always work," said Andrei Chernyshov, head analyst at inter-regional Trading System Zerno.
"Currently we can only speculate, no one is able to give an exact figure as the spring sowing campaign has just started," said Nikolai Demyanov, a deputy director of the research Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).
Russian harvests have experienced boom and bust cycles since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, being dependent largely on the country's unpredictable weather.
The crop hit a 40-year low of 47.9 million tonnes in 1998, followed by another poor harvest of 54.7 million in 1999, forcing the country to ask the United States and the European Union for food aid, which was granted.
Russia recorded its last impressive grain crop in 1997, when it harvested a post-Soviet high of 88.6 million tonnes. It harvested 65.5 million tonnes of grain in 2000.
Analysts estimate Russia's grain consumption this season at 73-76 million tonnes.
Russia has sown over 16 million hectares of winter grain this season, nearly two million more than last season, when winter grain accounted for 40 percent of the total crop.
"Winter grains harvest may be higher, as the sown area rose by two million tonnes, while winter kill losses were at last year's level of 1.5 million hectares," Chernyshov said.
But Demyanov said IKAR's preliminary estimates had shown winter kill losses could be higher, but he declined to give exact figures.
The country intends to sow another 33.5 million hectares with spring grains, down from last year's 35 million.
The average grain yield achieved last year was 1.93 tonnes per hectare. Records were vague in the Soviet era, but officials put the highest previously recorded grain yield at 1.85 tonnes per hectare in 1990.
Ministry officials have said that producers have sufficient seed and fuel but that a shortage of machinery for this year's sowing and harvesting campaign could cause problems.