As a counterweight to the US military presence in Central Asia, China will now try to get closer to Russia and expand its presence in Central Asia, the Kazakh newspaper Ekspress K said on 11 April. Russia and China are responding to the US presence by building up their military potential, and the possibility of a Beijing-Moscow-Delhi geopolitical axis is emerging. China is starting to develop Xinjiang to reduce the separatist threat. China's aggressive economic expansion and Russia's retreat from confrontation with China over such issues as transborder rivers will have important repercussions for the Central Asian countries. The following is the text of the report by Viktor Serov entitled "The Great Wall of China gets ever higher". Subheads have been inserted editorially.
Two events have taken place over the past two months which are barely noticeable against the background of those global changes that we have witnessed, but still it is we who should have looked at them closer. Our eastern neighbour [China] has been in the centre of these events. Earlier this year information emerged in the Russian media that Beijing had placed an order with a Russian defence plant for two brand-new destroyers. Later Kazakh sources reported that China was starting to develop a copper deposit in the Xinjiang [Uighur Autonomous Region, XUAR], of course, to the detriment of Kazakh copper exports. One trend pretty closely connects these two events, unconnected though they may seem: Beijing's desire to comprehensively strengthen its political, economic and military positions.
China vulnerable to US long-range aircraft
It seemed that there was nothing new about this since China's power has been increasing year by year for three decades now. But from now on the trend of this growth will be somewhat different both globally and regionally. Not only Moscow is concerned over the deployment of the US military forces in Central Asia, with Washington trying at the same time under the noble pretext of the fight against terrorism to further its influence "on all fronts"; however, even Moscow is less concerned over this than is China. From the military point of view, the latest geopolitical changes may pose big potential threats to China rather than to Russia. Now virtually the whole territory of China is becoming vulnerable to US long-range aircraft, given the US air force bases in Japan, South Korea, in the Indian Ocean and in CIS Central Asian states [Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan]. It is true that the US bases in the latter do not have long-range aircraft but will it take a long time for them to turn up there? The threat posed [to China] by tactical aircraft is already pretty serious.
There is also Taiwan, which is Washington's ally and is hostile to Beijing, and there is also the de facto return of the US military to the Philippines. Now it is only to the north of China, Russia, that there is no US presence. And a little northwestern section of China's border with Kazakhstan. But the numerous press articles chewing over the possibility of making the aerodromes in [eastern Kazakh town of] Semipalatinsk and [southern Kazakh town of] Taldykorgan available to the Americans and the British does not pass unnoticed in China.
China seeks new methods to handle new situation
The events that have taken place over the past two months have radically changed the state of affairs in China's strategic security issues and not in its favour. Whereas Beijing could concentrate on economic issues until the end of last year, fairly describing the problems with Taiwan and the XUAR as important but not so acute as to pose a threat to its security, however, now it is different. China needs to seek ways of reacting to the new situation.
China and Russia - new rapprochement
One of them could be a new rapprochement between China and Russia. They simply have no choice but to strengthen their geopolitical alliance. One cannot rule out that India will gradually be "inclined" towards this as well - it is hard to predict the political situation inside Pakistan, which is India's major opponent, which gives the USA huge opportunities to influence this region of Asia, whereas this threatens Delhi with isolation there.
But for the Central Asian countries this is not that topical. More important is what impact the Russian-Chinese rapprochement will have on them. One of the likeliest results, but of course this is not the strongest nor the last one, is that Moscow is guaranteed to withdraw, on its own initiative, from participation in solving the problems of the transborder rivers. Russia will not quarrel with China over the River Irtysh whereas Kazakhstan, evidently, will not be able to defend its interests on its own.
The rapprochement between Russia and China may develop towards ironing out their claims against one another and in future towards common political initiatives. For the time being, the obvious result of the US presence in Central Asia in the Russian-Chinese relations will be the building up of their military and technical potential. The destroyers that China has ordered in Saint Petersburg are not the first ones nor, of course, the last. What Yevgeniy Primakov unsuccessfully tried to do two years ago during his brief premiership when he put forward the idea of a Beijing - Moscow - Delhi geopolitical alliance just at the time when the USA was bombing Serbia, is now effectively being carried out by the USA itself.
Xinjiang province is China's painful "spot"
The second direction in which China will act in trying to counterbalance the USA is that it will strengthen its positions in Central Asia and actively develop the XUAR. This province is known to be still China's most painful "spot" in terms of the threat from disorders arising on ethnic grounds.
There is also Tibet, but it is more a political symbol for Beijing's opponents rather than a real threat since the potential for resistance is too weak in this sparsely-populated province.
As for the XUAR, it really does pose a potential threat because of its varied ethnic mix and large population.
Separatism can be fought both by using forceful methods and by improving the living standards in the region. By the way, at one time Beijing calmed Tibet down using a combination of these two methods.
Increasing the number of jobs, raising living standards and improving the social infrastructure - all these things cannot completely wipe out separatist sentiments but they can substantially narrow their base. Therefore Beijing will inevitably start developing the XUAR now that the hope has emerged in potential separatists that "the West will help" them. This is why China intends to start developing its copper deposits in the XUAR. Maybe it is economically inexpedient since it is more profitable to buy cheap Kazakh copper, but the political gains matter more. Kazakh copper producers can now only "thank" that [country] due to whose fault their market has become narrower.
China and Central Asia
China will probably step up its presence in the Central Asian countries as well. There are lots of methods for doing so: laying transport roads and railway routes from Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to China and introducing its financial organizations in the region.
What is most important is to ensure its imports increase even further. However, in terms of the economy and trade, the dependence of Central Asian countries [on China] is already so great that, in terms of geopolitics, this will outweigh the impact of the presence of the US military bases. And this dependence will not diminish.
It is no secret that many in countries of the [Central Asian] region, especially in Kazakhstan, have suspected China in recent years of a tendency to expansionism. We will not judge now whether this was right or wrong but if there was a grain of truth in this, then one cannot fail to notice that before the USA's coming to the region, it could have taken a long time, several decades, for these plans "to mature", whereas now all the geopolitical processes in the region have radically speeded up.