According to Noam, it's numbers 1 and 3 (from an Australian interview found at ZNet):
TONY JONES: Noam Chomsky, President Bush's position on the Middle East crisis is evolving fast now, but until recently there have been confusing and contradictory signals coming from his administration. What do you think has been happening?
PROFESSOR NOAM CHOMSKY, AUTHOR: The confusion inside the Administration I think, is a confusion about goals.
I mean, the right wing, the hardline right wing, is in favour of escalating violence against the Palestinians until they're crushed. Others are concerned with the impact in the Arab world, which is complicated and within that framework, they're trying to find a policy.
The whole thing is so badly skewed it's hard to even discuss it. There's no symmetry in this situation. There's plenty of violence and terror on both sides, which is awful, and no way to justify it. But the fact is the Palestinians have been under military occupation for 35 years. It has been harsh and brutal and violent throughout - racist, humiliating, destructive. It has been backed entirely by the United States unilaterally. It includes expansion of settlement into the occupied territories. It was actually Barak in his last year, broke all records since Oslo, always supported by the United States. There's just no symmetry.
In the diplomatic scene, there is plenty of criticism you can make about the Arab states. In fact, it's hard to think of anything nice to say about them. But the fact of the matter is that what has been blocking what is now the Saudi Arabian plan, is unilateral US-Israeli opposition.
DP