- -- Luke ------------- It's complicated. Chechnya's a nightmare, maybe hopeless. I think that conflict will go on for decades.
What you have is Russia responding to 1) frequent bandit raids into areas of Russia that border Chechnya, plus the massive kidnappings and the slave trade in Chechnya, 2) expansionist militancy on the part of the jihadists, who want to see their version of an Islamic state spread across the Caucasus, and 3) the wave of bombings that swept Russia in the late 90s (which may have been in part instigated by the security forces to get Putin elected) and still do happen from time to time. Of course, the response has been to use military forces with extremely poor morale and next to no training, who earn practically nothing and are fighting in a guerilla war setting, which themselves have turned to looting and kidnapping and widespread abuse of civilians, of course increasing anti-Russian feeling and general misery even among people who are not bandits/jihadists/involved in the slave trade, etc.
I don't see what options Russia has. The whole thing is horrible. Sometimes I think Russia just should just build a giant wall around the place. The instant the troops leave, the place will degenerate back into the complete anarchy of 96-99, as opposed to the relative anarchy of today. maybe back in 99 or 2000 the Russians could have worked something out with the pro-Russian secularist Chechens in the north of the republic, but that's not a possibility any longer, I don't think.
People in the West I've noted, especially lefties, like to equate Chechnya with Palestine. Chechnya is not like Palestine. Chechnya is like Somalia. Chechnya has historically been ruled by feuding bandit clans. (Ever read Lermontov?) The slave trade persisted in Chechnya even in the Soviet Union. You would feel safe taking a train through Chechnya, but you would never drive through it.
Chris Doss The Russia Journal