GoldFields' estimate of Aids cost highlights economic impact of epidemic Michael Dynes April 19 2002 at 10:12AM
Johannesburg - The blunt admission by Gold Fields that the HIV/Aids epidemic would add up to $10 an ounce in extra gold production costs has focused minds on the price of operating in South Africa.
The country is entering the early stages of an exponential increase in HIV/Aids deaths that will transform the business landscape. As HIV/Aids is not a notifiable disease, and many deaths due to the virus are attributed to other causes because of the social stigma, no one knows for sure how many people are dying.
The figures used to gauge the scale of the pandemic are derived from computer projections. They are based on data collected from blood samples at 400 ante-natal clinics. These are then extrapolated to the population as a whole, and provide no more than mathematical probabilities.
In a country where figures on births and deaths are unreliable, statistics on HIV infection rates carry the proverbial health warning. But there is little doubt that people are dying in ever-greater numbers, and that they will continue to do so for many years.
The projections suggest that 11 percent of the population, or 5 million people, are already infected with HIV, and 250 000 people are believed to have died last year from opportunistic diseases associated with Aids.
Infection rates are forecast to peak at 17 percent over the next decade, with total deaths rising to 7 million people before the epidemic begins to recede.
The government's mortality reports show that more young South Africans are dying now than ever before: 362 450 in 2000 compared with 260 273 in 1997.
Wayne Myslik, a consultant and demographer at NMG-Levy, a business services company that has just released its latest projections of the impact of Aids, warns that the medium- and long-term effects are only dimly understood.
"In five years, HIV/Aids could increase the cost of employment more than 54 percent," he says.
Only a handful of studies have attempted to quantify the macroeconomic impact of HIV/Aids. Investors will need to do this if they are to have any prospect of surviving in the Aids economy.
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