> Reuters Business Durable Goods Orders Fall 0.6 Percent
>
> By Anna Willard
>
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. orders for costly manufactured goods
> fell more than expected in March, the government said on Wednesday
> in a report that was skewed by the surprise removal of all data for
> semiconductors but which still revealed some economic weak spots.
Released also today were new home sale stats showing a larger than expected drop (posted below). Now if the 2001 recession was offset by surprisingly strong consumer demand for homes and cars enabled by low mortgage rates and 0% carloans, would it not make sense that 2001 home and car sales were in effect taken from 2002 & 2003? And that what we're seeing in these numbers today is the start of the double dip? And that any possible *upward* movement in interest rates would be asking for very serious trouble?
john mage
April 24, 2002 New Home Sales Fall in March By REUTERS
Filed at 1:03 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. new home sales fell 3.1 percent in March, the government said on Wednesday, as one of the stronger sectors of the economy showed signs of slowing from its recent record pace.
New single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 878,000 last month, a drop from the upwardly revised 906,000 pace in February, the Commerce Department said.
March home sales were below the expectations of analysts polled by Reuters, who had forecast an 882,000-unit pace.
Home sales and building stayed strong through the U.S. economic slump that began in March 2001 and surged during an unseasonably mild winter. Most analysts forecast moderating, but still strong, levels of housing activity in the remainder of the year.
``It really helped us through the recession and the early stages of recovery, but don't look for housing to be a growth engine for the rest of the year,'' said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.
In the March report, inventories rose to 311,000 homes for sale at the end of the month, the highest level in two years. At the same time, the supply of homes available for sale at the March sales pace was 4.3 months, the 63rd consecutive report below 5 months.
New home sales fell by 0.2 percent in the South, the region of the greatest sales volume, but rose 3.3 percent in the West.
Sales fell by 19.3 percent in the Midwest to their slowest pace since October 1997, and fell 4.4 percent in the Northeast.
The upward revisions to sales in January and February and the big drops in Midwest and Northeast are clear signs the housing sector is giving back some of the strong gains of the mild winter, Seiders said.
However, the size of the March decline is reassuring given strong demand in the market, he said.
Another report on Wednesday showed the nature of that demand, which is generated by lonw-term mortgage interest rates that have been below 7 percent for the last three weeks. A survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported increases in measures of both loans to refinance as well as to purchase a home, and an overall market index rose as well.
Housing activity has shown signs of cooling from record levels at the end of 2001 and the early part of this year. New home sales figure plunged 13.7 percent in January, but regained a revised 6.2 percent increase in February. Housing starts, an activity even more affected by the weather than sales, fell by 7.8 percent in March, the biggest decline in two years.