Legal proceedings connected with establishing a military alliance between Moscow and Beijing began this Wednesday. This was the first agreement among the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (along with Russia and China, this group also includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) to stipulate unification of military structures of the signatories for the purpose of achieving common missions in Central Asia. The heads of border guard services of the signatories met in Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan, and resolved to set up a "special coordinating body" enabling border guards to exchange operational information and mount joint operations. This is the first real attempt by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to combine efforts in the security sphere. Until now, the organization has mostly presented itself as a political-economic formation. Our military- diplomatic sources maintain that the structure of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may undergo some substantial changes in the near future. The issue will be discussed - and a decision will probably be made - at a summit scheduled for June 7 in St. Petersburg.
The credit for the current reforms within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may be given to Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, as well as the United States and its NATO allies. The organization shifted into the political-military sphere after the September 11 events and the subsequent vengeance operation in Afghanistan. The terrorist attacks on the United States forced members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to facilitate interaction between their respective secret services. The advent of US and NATO bases in the region led to the need to negotiate on fully-fledged military cooperation, at least in future. It is clear here that the talks mostly concern only two signatories: Russia and China. Russia already has smooth cooperation with three other signatories (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) within the framework of the CIS Collective Security Treaty. As for Uzbekistan, a country that quit the CIS Collective Security Treaty in 1999, Moscow has no hopes for a military alliance with it. Tashkent itself has made it clear that it is not very interested. Even the latest meeting of border guards in Alma-Ata took place without the Uzbeks.
Moscow used to be very cautious about Beijing's proposals for broader military cooperation in the region - right up until the US and NATO "invasion" of Central Asia. Well-informed and reliable sources from the Russian Security Council say that the Kremlin didn't exactly trust Beijing not to "gradually squeeze us out of the region, eventually." That is why Russia kept China at arm's length from the collective regional security system it was carefully building with its allies from the CIS Collective Security Treaty. The recent South Antiterror 2002 exercises (involving army units and special services from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) show that a great deal has been achieved.
The Kremlin has a new problem now. It has to come up with ways of creating a counterweight to US and NATO military influence in the region. That is why the threat of being "gradually and eventually" squeezed out by China is feared less nowadays than the rapid process which is already underway, courtesy of the Americans and their allies. During talks in Beijing this March, China once again proposed "using the experience of the CIS Collective Security Treaty in preparing the fundamental agreements of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The Russian delegation, led by General Valery Nikolayenko, didn't turn this down immediately. The draft charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other documents are being prepared behind closed doors, but some slips of the tongue made by participants in the process indicate that a fully-fledged Russian-Chinese alliance isn't too far away.