Subject: Re: war plans
> WAR PLAN By NILES LATHEM > > WASHINGTON -
These dramatic satellite photos show just how
far U.S. > preparations for war with Iraq have
advanced. > > They are images of the
state-of-the-art al Udeid air base in Qatar, >
which has been significantly upgraded over the
last six months and is > expected to be used as
America's base for military operations against
> Saddam Hussein. > ...
>>The reporter seems to be unfamiliar with
military matters. A serious invasion of Iraq
cannot be staged from a single airbase, however
state-of-the-art, in Qatar. Unless the Pentagon
has secret knowledge that a revolt is about to
take place in Iraq, bombing and small commando
raids cannot be expected to impress, much less
displace, the present government there. An
invasion must be staged from one or more of
Iraq's neighbors, and the buildup for it would
take several weeks. The airbase in Qatar is
probably being expanded to account for the loss
of facilities in Saudi Arabia, in which case it
represents a sort of tactical retreat, a
pulling-back of an imperial outpost to a more
secure position.- -- Gordon<<
Now I'm commenting on the piece, Gordon's comments, and pretty much the entire thread so far.
1. It's interesting that if this report is accurate and anticipates exactly what I thought they would do (70,000 or so troops in the direct action).
It's not that they are entirely rejecting the idea of an Afghan-style campaign. Afghanistan posed more daunting logistics problems since the US forces have so little armor and mechanized infantry that is in anyway 'air mobile'. Also, the glory hogs of special forces and the like want to take credit for the 'success' in Afghanistan, but the US isn't going to take Iraq or even seriously threaten it with rangers, green berets, seals and delta force. The regular army and the marine corps have to be brought in on it in a major but practical way or the whole thing wouldn't succeed.
Of course the air force, naval air power, and marine air wings will play the biggest part, since the US will not really want to put too many ground troops anywhere in an actual set piece battle where they could get killed. The main idea is to bomb Hussein's forces into exhaustion and depletion, just like last time (since all those troops King George the Fake mustered, most of them did nothing but eat dust and get their desert camie BDUs all dusty).
Much of what got expended on Afghanistan was really intended for the coming Iraq campaign, which is what the busy beaver senators in alliance with the Bush regime have been working on since 1999, but in earnest since 2000. I don't think it would have made much difference had it been Bore-Blubberman in the White House, since Sen. Blubberman has been a major figure in getting the anti-Hussein efforts going, as has Sen. McInsane.
2. I think sooner than later, though the big fake out point now is this idea that they are going to attack Bagdhad directly. This is to get Hussein to commit most of his forces to a defense of that area. But this is pretty obvious, so I'm sure the US planners are diversifying their options by planning harrying actions to Bagdhad, and also is planning some serious bombing campaigns in attempts to kill Hussein with a bomb strike.
3. Gordon objects to the article , but I'd say the author pretty much knows of what he writes. For one, he mentions all the other air bases and facilities the US has at its disposals. The Qatari build up is not simply a replacement for US bases in S.A. Also, look for the US to make use of those cleared aircraft carriers loaded with helicopters and danger rangers.
4. Finally, the war makes plenty of sense if you can think like the rulers on the national security council. For a start, the future of the world's oil supplies lie mostly with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. You can open up areas like the Caspian in hopes of getting some oil , but the promise of expensive infrastructure and 'services' contracts is what draws the Americans there. The real oil is the ME, long term.
Also, a bombed out Iraq (already bombed out anyway) will hold plenty of profits amenable to how the Bush and Cheney dynasties make their money--parasite services to the federal government, significantly but not exclusively defense, parasite services to Arab countries who can pay in petro dollars, 'defense', and of course mineral extraction.
Most importantly, the war makes sense because it rewrites history with Iraq and Hussein and it hems Iran in even further (and the US imperialists still have some major revision to do in that regard).
I think the campaign will be Persian Gulf War lite with an Afghan flare, and that the Bushists will seriously try to pull it off sooner than later. However, only they know if all the elements they need are in place. The B-52s, the A-10s will fly soon, and US and UK forces will attempt some sort of southern Iraq incursion to set up the chances they need to bomb the hell out of Hussein's few good divisions. I think the major gamble is that the US is hoping that a bombed Iraqi military will eventually turn on Hussein--and they probably have what happened to Milosevic as an example to argue with. There will be an infrastructure collapse of Iraq, though the US will avoid intentional targetting of civilians (pity the poor Iraqi conscripts), of course.
Charles Jannuzi
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