In the first half of 2002, the (preliminary estimate of the) crude mortality rate in Russia was 16.8, an increase of 5.7% over the first half of 2001 (see Goskomstat's website). This suggests, allowing for the usual seasonal factors, that the crude death rate in 2002 as a whole will be about 16.5. This means that it will be significantly higher than the mortality crisis year of 1994 (15.7) and higher than in any year since 1947 (the year of the last Soviet famine). It also means that the life expectancy for males will fall again, probably to about 58. What explains this increase in mortality?
Part of it is a normal demographic phenomenon resulting from the ageing of the population. After all, the crude death rate has increased almost continuously since 1964 (when it was 7.2) because of this. That explains part of it, but not all, of an (almost) 6% increase. It is not a result of a crisis of the medical system, since the infant mortality rate fell again in the first half of 2002 and is heading steadily towards west European levels. Furthermore, it is not a result of a macroeconomic crisis, since the economy is continuing to grow. Whereas the mortality increases of 1987-94, and 1998-2000 could be ascribed to economic crises, this is not the case with the further increase in 2002. Possibly the detailed figures for 2002 as a whole will throw more light on the matter. Perhaps a JRL readers can explain it?
Meanwhile it is an unexpected and disturbing phenomenon.