Hill of Beans Christopher Caldwell
New Model Armey
Every election season piles up more evidence that the Cold War party structure has become meaningless. Not just "more fluid," or "harder to read"-meaningless. Our parties are coming to resemble sports teams in the era of free agency-they have fans who remain loyal, even if the squad has nothing in common with last year's. "Liberal" Bill Clinton abolished welfare and pursued a more conservative economic policy than any president since Coolidge. "Conservative" George Bush's signature legislative achievement is an education package that betokens the largest shift of power to Washington since LBJ. Only inertia and habit could explain why virtually all of the people who were Republicans or Democrats 15 years ago still belong to their respective parties.
First, we see Republicans criticizing Democrats for acting like Republicans. In the South Dakota Senate race, GOP Congressman John Thune has been running ads against the Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson, accusing Johnson of wanting to invest Social Security funds in the stock market. This is not exactly true-Johnson merely threw out the idea in the run-up to his 1996 campaign against Larry Pressler. (And asked what Thune's own position on the matter was, his spokesman Christine Iverson replied, "John has no position one way or the other." That's nice.) What's more interesting than one politician misrepresenting another is that Thune thinks he can get elected by spouting the Democratic line.
Second, we see Democrats attacking Democrats for acting like Democrats. In the Michigan gubernatorial primary, Jennifer Granholm won an overwhelming victory over David Bonior and Jim Blanchard, two giants of Michigan Democratic politics. This shows that the feminist money bundlers at EMILY's List-not the labor unions, which backed Bonior, and not the blacks, who mostly backed Blanchard-form the red-hot burning core of the Democratic constituency. But we knew that. What's interesting is that the slashing late ads that EMILY's List ran in favor of Granholm attacked Bonior and Blanchard as "soft on crime." Granholm thought she could get elected as a Dem by running on Richard Nixon's issues.
Third, we see Republicans attacking Republicans for acting like Republicans. In the New Hampshire senatorial party, incumbent Bob Smith-a conservative so hard-line that he briefly left the GOP three years ago because he felt it had betrayed the cause of small government-accuses his challenger, John Sununu the Younger, of backing tax increases. Okay, that plays to script: Sununu, like his father, is one of those worst-of-both-worlds Bush Republicans, who pays lip-service to conservative "values" while favoring Democratic levels of government interference. What's interesting is that Smith also accuses Sununu of voting against adding a prescription drug benefit to Medicare. The facts may be iffy on this-Sununu says he's voted for two such bills. Hasn't Smith done the same? Smith now thinks he can plausibly sell himself to the GOP rank-and-file as the guardian of an expanded welfare state.
This drifting away from ideological moorings is particularly marked in the Republican South. The belief that migration to the Sun Belt would transform the country into some kind of right-wing bastion has turned out to be wrong. These people are Republicans all right, but not necessarily of a stripe that, say, Ronald Reagan would recognize. Dick Armey traveled to Iowa last week, where he gave a speech that vaulted him to near the top of the Washington antiwar establishment. Saddam Hussein may continue to refuse to let weapons inspectors into his country, Armey said, but "in my estimation it is not enough reason to go in." That could have been Paul Wellstone talking.
In South Carolina, meanwhile, Lindsey Graham, the Cicero of the Impeach Bill Clinton crusade, is trying to get himself elected senator by running as Richard Gephardt. After last week's Senate passage of fast-track negotiating authority for the president, Graham said he wouldn't have voted for it, and set himself firmly in the protectionist camp. "America is the biggest chump in the world," he said, "and I'm tired of it." And tired of the free trade that has been part of the Republican Decalogue since 1980. To judge from the flurry of agricultural subsidies and steel tariffs that the President has ordered over the last few months, Graham has company.