FOMC: rate same, bias towards ease

Nomiprins at aol.com Nomiprins at aol.com
Tue Aug 13 14:46:17 PDT 2002


In a message dated 8/13/02 4:49:21 PM Eastern Daylight Time, dhenwood at panix.com writes:


> How? Why? Whaddya mean?
>
It would have been spinned to link to the stock market (since Greenspan characterized the economy as 'resilient' just last month) evoking remarks from Bush & co. about the positive combined impact of harsher corporate fraud penalties (a useless afterthought) and supportive monetary policy. But, the erosion in stock market value over the past two years, and more spectacularly over the past couple months, was due to the discovery that all the balance sheet inflation, growth in R&D and technology, and over-expansion was built on quicksand. The 11 rate cuts over the past year didn't boost the market or the economy, because they couldn't change that basic fact. Cutting in mid August when markets are even more volatile because of the sheer lack of participants - while we're already at 1.75% uses up a bullet. A cut would have boosted the markets for a day, two max before they crashed even lower. It would have been construed as positive for a few minutes, before the realization set in that there's no room to go much lower. That said, I believe Greenspan will cut rates after another round of economic data and AFTER the FOMC meeting on 9/24 (as has been his controlling custom - he never cuts when everyone's looking.)

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