Philly Fed's August Survey

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Aug 16 16:00:33 PDT 2002


Michael Perelman wrote:


>I recall a recent study indicating that the ISM survey, though widely
>reported, is worthless as a leading indicator.

It's not read as a leading indicator so much as a quick snapshot of the present. For example, the ISM for August will be released on 9/3; August industrial production, 9/17. And the Philly Fed survey for August was released yesterday. But if you're trying to trade on a prediction of what the ISM will be, you've got the Philly Fed to go on, not to mention the Chicago purchasing managers survey, which comes out on 8/30 - several full days ahead of the ISM!

Doug



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