Calling a spade a spade
By OTTO LATSIS / Special to The Russia Journal
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s latest visit to Moscow was expected to smooth over the hiccup caused during his last visit when his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, let slip his expression about keeping the meat and the flies separate. That rather undiplomatic turn of phrase looked a sign of Putin’s growing irritation with the ongoing demagogy regarding union between the two countries.
This time, Putin kept his tongue more under control, took the lead and cut off Lukashenko’s verbal twists and turns with a business-like discussion of each side’s mutual interests. Russia is not backing away from Belarus, but on the contrary, is ready for an even closer union, Putin explained. Indeed, Putin proposed that Belarus join the Russian Federation as one of its component regions.
It took little political foresight to guess Lukashenko’s reaction. Putin no doubt counted on a refusal when he made the proposal, hoping in this way to free himself from Lukashenko’s propaganda pressure by taking the initiative in his own hands. The only surprise was the speed of Lukashenko’s reaction – his refusal came the same day as Putin made the proposal.
The different Russian political groups also reacted as expected. The Communists condemned Putin’s tactic, justifiably seeing in it a refusal to accept Lukashenko’s conditions. The Union of Right Forces supported Putin for the same reasons that the Communists condemned him, and the Kremlin-loyal centrists praised Putin for taking a new step toward cementing the union between the two countries.
Only the Belarusian opposition seemed not to get what was going on. "This means Russia wants to swallow Belarus," was the offended response from former chairman of the Belarusian Supreme Soviet, Stanislav Shushkevich. Shushkevich obviously didn’t catch on to Putin’s cunning move to free himself from Lukashenko’s tight embrace while avoiding criticism for betraying "Slavic brotherhood." Now it is Belarus that comes across as not wanting closer links.
But Shushkevich’s words betray a deeper confusion. Putin is defending Russia’s interests, as is his right and duty. This doesn’t mean, however, that he is infringing on Belarus’ rights and interests. It is Putin’s job to say on what conditions Russia could accept Belarus’ constant calls for closer integration. But Russia isn’t forcing these conditions on anyone: If Belarus doesn’t like them, then there won’t be any new union treaty between the two countries, and this is just what the Belarusian opposition always wanted.
The Belarusian opposition goes up against the treaty because it sees it as a threat to national sovereignty. The Russian opposition fights it because it fears Lukashenko’s anti-democratic policies could spread to Russia. The Russian opposition isn’t against Belarusian sovereignty and doesn’t support imperialist-minded Russian politicians’ attacks on this sovereignty, but it thinks that it’s up to the Belarusians themselves to defend their sovereignty. If the Belarusians want to trade their sovereignty for economic benefits, then that’s their affair.
In any event, Putin’s proposal that Belarus join the Russian Federation is less of a sensation than it looks. Lukashenko’s latest visit shows that nothing new, let alone any sensations, is taking place regarding Belarusian-Russian union. Lukashenko rejects Russia’s proposals concerning either joining the Russian Federation or developing a bilateral union on the lines of the European Union. Lukashenko would prefer to keep things as they are and make more of the possibilities offered by the current bilateral treaty.
>From a practical point of view, the single currency issue is more important
than the union treaty. Putin adopted the same tactic on this issue,
proposing that the two countries could use the Russian ruble from 2004,
rather than from 2005, as was planned. Lukashenko replied that Belarus would
be ready to introduce the single currency even from 2003, provided that the
Belarusian central bank had the right to print money.
Belarus has insisted on this point throughout the last decade, and Russia’s Central Bank has just as doggedly refused. This time, too, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Oleg Vyugin said that the introduction of a single currency would require a political decision by Belarus (i.e. giving up sovereignty on the money printing issue), changes to Belarusian legislation and a serious overhaul of the country’s budget procedures. Vyugin repeated that only the Russian Central Bank would have the right to print money. Lukashenko’s rejection of the proposal raises doubts as to whether the single currency could go ahead in practical terms.
Russia can’t afford to endlessly throw money from its own pockets, but it will continue to throw money around in limited amounts. Russia still sells gas to Belarus at three times less than the world price, still offers rail-freight tariffs that are six times lower, and continues to provide loans. So, Lukashenko still has something to fight for, even after the latest disagreements.
[23 Aug 2002]
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