BODY: IT WAS about an hour into the condominium association meeting, in a middle-class Caracas neighbourhood, before anyone broached the subject that was on everyone's mind. "What happens if there are acts of vandalism, like in April," an elegantly dressed young woman asked the police officer who was addressing the meeting. "You tell us to stay calm, but do you have any other advice?" Ever since the coup attempt in mid-April that briefly ousted President Hugo Chavez, the better-off inhabitants of the Venezuelan capital have been growing increasingly nervous. An e-mail campaign is warning them that, if another military rebellion occurs, they can expect concerted, armed attacks on their homes by pro-Chavez mobs. In response, residents of many apartment buildings, and some whole neighbourhoods, have drawn up defence plans and taken stock of their weapons. "Where I live," says a retired general, "we've met several times to make plans. To decide where to place the rifles, where to place the small arms, who's going to use which weapon and what the angle of fire should be."
The middle-class districts of Caracas are sandwiched between slums at the eastern and western ends of the valley. In some cases, posh residential areas rub shoulders with barrios in which the rule of law is a joke, and where the police go in--if at all--in flak jackets and with guns drawn. These areas are among the chief bastions of government support. Before Mr Chavez was restored to power, in the early hours of April 14th, widespread looting took place, much of it seemingly organised by groups loyal to the president. Although their main targets were shops and supermarkets, some gun-toting Chavez supporters roared into the nicer streets on motorbikes, sparking panic.
Whatever the true nature of the threat, gun shops in wealthier districts are selling many more weapons and bullets these days. Most popular are shotguns, which are more practical for the non-expert and for which it is easier to get a firearms licence. One shop in the east of the city says June sales were up by 35%, although a good shotgun can cost up to $1,000.
A lawyer who acts as legal counsel to several neighbourhood associations says he has spoken to active-service generals who say they would send troops, "even a tank", to defend their own and their neighbours' homes in an emergency. "The police and the army will be too busy fighting among themselves," he says.
In the slums, too, people assume that armed conflict is coming and that the enemy is better prepared. "I have a 24-inch TV," says the leader of one pro-Chavez community organisation in western Caracas, "and if I can sell it to buy a pistol, I will." Both sides argue that the other has "nothing to lose". The middle class is risking nothing, the community leader says. "They hire people to fight and die for them."
Rumours of a coup, very loud in mid-June, have died down somewhat in recent days. But plans among military rebels to overthrow the government seem merely to be on hold. According to the retired general, the threat of armed conflict among civilians is one factor that might cause the armed forces to intervene. No one would question their right and duty to restore order; and "restoring order" might go as far as the presidential palace.
GRAPHIC: Watch out for granny, she's got you covered; Chavez may have the slums, but the nicer streets have their guns. -- Yoshie
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