Most Unconvinced on Iraq War
>
> Two-thirds believe Bush has failed to make the case an attack would
> be justified. Many think weapons are there, but they want proof.
>
> By Maura Reynolds
>
> The Los Angeles Times
> 17 December 2002
>
> WASHINGTON -- Despite a concerted effort by the Bush administration,
> more than two-thirds of Americans believe the president has failed
> to make the case that a war with Iraq is justified, according to a
> Los Angeles Times poll.
>
> The overwhelming majority of respondents -- 90% -- said they do not
> doubt that Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction. But in
> the absence of new evidence from U.N. inspectors, 72% of
> respondents, including 60% of Republicans, said the president has
> not provided enough evidence to justify starting a war with Iraq.
>
> The results underscore the importance of the outcome of U.N. arms
> inspections underway in Iraq if the Bush administration expects to
> gain clear public support for an attack.
>
> "I'm not against [war] if it is necessary," said 59-year-old Kramer
> Smith, a preacher, carpenter and registered Republican from
> Bloomfield, Iowa, one of a number of respondents who explained their
> views in follow-up interviews. "But I think we need to be pretty
> sure before we start pulling in the big guns. If they could put
> their hands on evidence of real production of weapons of mass
> destruction, then I would say go ahead and do it."
>
> The poll also found that support for a possible war appears to be
> weakening, with 58% saying they support a ground attack on Iraq. In
> an August Times poll, 64% said they would support a ground attack.
> Last January, after President Bush first denounced Saddam Hussein in
> his State of the Union address, the Times and other polls found
> support for military action greater than 70%.
>
> "Still, almost three-quarters of Americans approve of the way George
> W. Bush is handling the threat of terrorism in the country, and
> nearly three out of five also approve of his handling of the
> country's affairs," said Susan Pinkus, who directed The Times poll.
>
> Traditionally, support is low before a president declares war, but
> increases after troops are in the field.
>
> "If he actually does go to war, I suspect people will swing behind
> him as they did in the Gulf War," said John Mueller, an expert on
> war and public opinion at Ohio State University. "But right now,
> there isn't all that much enthusiasm for the war."
>
> That lack of support may stem from the impression that the president
> has failed to present enough hard evidence to prove that Hussein
> possesses weapons of mass destruction and is prepared to use them.
> The administration has spent much of the last three months trying to
> build a case for war -- internationally at the United Nations, and
> domestically during the president's frenetic campaigning in advance
> of midterm elections last month.
>
> "How come they can show satellite photos of nuclear sites in Iran
> but they can't find the same in Iraq?" asked Nancy Carolan, 52, a
> jewelry artist on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. "I don't think
> they're justified, but they are just going to do it anyway."
>
> The poll also indicates that Americans do not agree with the
> president's argument that any error or omission in the arms
> declaration Iraq sent to the United Nations earlier this month is
> adequate to justify war.
>
> Instead, 63% of respondents said war would be justified only if the
> United Nations finds a pattern of serious violations by Iraq. Just
> 22% agreed with the administration's position; 6% said it would
> depend on the nature of the omissions; and 9% said they were not
> sure or declined to reply.
>
> Almost six in 10 say it is unlikely that the U.N. inspectors will
> find Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
>
> "I don't doubt that they do" have weapons of mass destruction, said
> respondent Victoria Ellison, 57, a Democrat from Burbank. "But I
> want to see proof. "
>
> If U.N. inspections fail to turn up evidence of Iraqi weapons
> programs, almost half of respondents said they would oppose war.
> Only 41% would favor war, and 10% said they don't know whether they
> would favor or oppose.
>
> The Times poll also suggests Americans are more informed about the
> possibility of war with Iraq, with 84% saying they are following the
> news closely -- up from 76% in August. Sixty-three percent of
> respondents in the recent poll said they feel war is inevitable, 27%
> said war may or may not occur, and 4% said they believed war would
> not occur.
>
> Respondents also expressed concern that the president may not be
> getting balanced information from his advisors. Fifty-one percent of
> respondents said they believe Bush's advisors favor going to war;
> 20% said the advisors present a balanced view; and 11% said the
> advisors are opposed to war. Roughly a fifth said they are not sure
> whether Bush's advisors favor or oppose war.
>
> If the United States should launch an attack, 68% of Americans want
> it to be only with the support of the international community. Only
> 26% said they were willing to support war if the United States acted
> alone.
>
> "I am not opposed to doing something, but it would have to be in the
> right circumstances," said Geoff George, a 20-year-old independent
> from Albany, Ore. "I would probably be a little more supportive if
> the U.N. and the rest of the world united and we all decided to do
> it together. But [if we act] as one nation, I don't think there
> would ever be enough evidence for me."
>
> However, at least theoretically, Americans agree with the
> administration's argument that sometimes preemptive or preventive
> war is justified. Sixty-four percent of respondents, including 49%
> of Democrats, believe the United States should reserve the right to
> launch a preemptive attack against regimes that threaten the
> country. Only 25% said they opposed such a policy, and 11% said they
> did not have an opinion on the issue.
>
> If the United States does go to war, the decision is likely to have
> serious ramifications at home and abroad, respondents said.
> Sixty-seven percent said war is likely to increase the threat of
> terrorist attacks in the United States; 51% said they feel it would
> destabilize the Middle East; and 45% said it will have a negative
> effect on the U.S. economy.
>
> They are also concerned about the possibility of military
> casualties. Of those who initially said they support a ground attack
> against Iraq, 18% said they would do so only if no American soldiers
> are killed. However, support falls off gradually as the theoretical
> death toll is raised, but 29% said they would support war no matter
> what the cost in American lives.
>
> Finally, in the wake of a war, the vast majority of Americans --
> 70%, according to the poll -- feel the country has an obligation to
> stay and rebuild Iraq.
>
> The Times poll was conducted Dec. 12 to 15 and interviewed 1,305
> adults nationwide. Margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3
> percentage points.
>
--
Marta Russell
Los Angeles, CA
http://www.disweb.org