Scotland on Sunday The Scotsman (Edinbugh) - 22 Dec 2002 Saddam's last snub will trigger war
THE endgame in the elaborate pre-war contest between America and Iraq is about to be played out. And scientists, not the sudden discovery of weapons of mass destruction, are likely to provide the spark to ignite the long-awaited conflagration.
The United States is ratcheting up the pressure on the UN weapons inspectors to fly dozens of Iraqs top scientists, and hundreds of members of their extended families out of the country, so that they can be questioned about Saddams weapons programmes.
Those taken out of the country would include a far greater number of people than the immediate families of the scientists, who would fear for the lives not just of their spouses and children but for other relatives within easy reach of Saddam.
And with Iraq certain to resist such a mass exodus, a clear scenario for war is emerging, according to senior American officials.
As the new strategy emerged, the US army launched its biggest manoeuvre in the Kuwaiti desert since the Gulf War yesterday, throwing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of armoured vehicles into live-firing exercises to sharpen their skills.
Meanwhile, in Iraq, teams of UN arms inspectors resumed their hunt for banned weapons after winning promises that secret intelligence data would be provided by Western governments to assist them.
Iraq has already marched defiantly through the first of the two tripwires necessary to trigger war. The weapons dossier provided earlier this month was condemned by both Britain and the US and described by Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, as containing little new information.
The second tripwire is now being set. The refusal by Iraq to allow its scientists to travel abroad for questioning would amount to a clear "material breach" of Saddams responsibilities under the resolution. The demand for Iraqi scientists and their families, a necessity given the obvious fear of reprisals by Saddam, is taking the form of intense lobbying of Blix by Washington.
The Bush administration wants to force the pace and avoid a long and inconclusive search for weapons in a country whose ruler is a past master at the art of concealment.
US officials say they are confident Iraq will resist because it knows its whos who of scientific researchers represents the best hope of exposing the truth about Saddams efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.
A Pentagon official said: "The one thing that survived the Gulf War and sanctions was Iraqs brains trust. Its one thing to go to Iraq and see a piece of equipment. But the most important thing is to be able to talk to the guy who worked the equipment."
The White House has told the CIA, the Pentagon, and the State Department to develop a comprehensive plan to interview large numbers of Iraqi scientists outside Iraq.
Not only are the Iraqi scientists to be offered asylum. The US also intends to use compulsion against those who resist by issuing subpoenas. They would be told that refusal would constitute an Iraqi breach of UN Resolution 1441.
The UN resolution adopted last month requires the Baghdad government to provide the names of all former and current personnel associated with its weapons programmes, and to give inspectors immediate access to them, including the right to interview them outside the country. But it says nothing specifically about what should happen to any scientists who refuse to co-operate.
Iraqi scientists now face an agonising dilemma. Many want to defect if they can do so safely. With salaries as low as 3 a month, even for leading scientists, and their country on the rack, an estimated 2,000 have left in the past five years. Many have managed to bribe officials and obtain false passports.
Yet those who do agree to go know that they will be putting any family members they leave behind in mortal danger. Brutal reprisals against family members of those who cross him have been at the heart of Saddams reign of terror.
The most notorious case was that of Saddams sons-in-law who defected to Jordan in 1995, taking with them their wives, Saddams two daughters, and their children, Saddams grandchildren. Hussein Kamel al-Majid, who was in overall charge of Iraqs nuclear weapons programme, and Saddam Kamel, who headed Saddams presidential bodyguard, called for the dictators overthrow. They were lured back on the promise of a pardon by Saddam, and were promptly murdered.
Among western intelligences whos who of scientists are a number with academic qualifications from American and British universities. Rihab Taha, a British-trained microbiologist, ran Iraqs biological research laboratory at Al Hakam, which explored the weaponisation of pathogens that cause anthrax and plague, earning herself the nickname Dr Germ.
Jaffar Dhia Jaffar, also British-trained, is father of Iraq's nuclear weapons programme. He was persuaded to take the job only after being imprisoned and tortured. In the early 1980s Saddam forced him to watch as guards broke the back of an elderly man and left him to suffer in Jaffars presence. He agreed to return to work, and became head of Iraqs secret Petrochemical-3 unit, running secret programmes to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, until it was stopped by the UN inspection teams.
Hazem Ali is a virologist who may know whether Iraq possesses the smallpox virus. In the 1980s Ali, who earned his doctorate in Britain, headed Iraqs research into the camel pox virus, a close cousin to the variola virus that causes smallpox.
Khidhir Hamza, a former Iraqi nuclear scientist who fled Iraq in 1994, says he believes that up to 90% of his colleagues will defect.
"If youre an Iraqi scientist getting by on a few dollars a month and you have a chance to live in freedom with your family for the rest of your life, why wouldnt you co-operate?"
Earlier this month, Blix asked Iraq to hand over a list of former and current employees who have worked on chemical and biological weapons and ballistic missiles. The document must be produced by the end of December. The Iraqis have not yet said that they will co-operate. They may still be hoping that Blix will shield them from the US pressure.
General Amir Saadi, Saddams top aide for weapons science, said the prospect of taking scientists out of a sovereign nation presents "serious problems" under international law, but he expressed concern that Blix might be pressured into turning over a copy of Iraqs list of scientists to Washington. "This is a confidential list," he said.
"Will he make it public? Will he give it to other countries?" Blix himself has so far been reluctant to use his authority. He said that his team should not become a channel for defections.
But the US will not be restrained by such niceties, and the squeeze is now on for Blix - whose inspectors have uncovered precious little - to deliver.
Speaking during a visit to Afghanistan, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Richard Myers, said yesterday that his forces were ready for action straight away if called upon to fight a war in Iraq.
"The job of the US military and our coalition partners is to be ready to do what our presidents ask...We will be ready to do that no matter what month it is," he said.
There are now 60,000 US troops in the Gulf region, more than half of them navy and air force, and some 50,000 US ground troops were being told last week to get ready to move to the Gulf, US officials said.
On Friday, US officials offered more data to the inspectors after Blix had urged Washington and London to share intelligence.
Officials said yesterday the information would involve fewer than six sites where US intelligence believed Iraq has "suspicious chemical weapons or elements of production".
Meanwhile, President George Bush, who has already cancelled a trip to Africa at a few weeks notice, used his weekly radio address to deliver a Christmas message remembering soldiers protecting Americans.
"Our entire nation is... thinking at this time of year of the men and women in the military, many of whom will spend Christmas at posts and bases far from home. They stand between Americans and grave danger," he said.
And Iraq maintained its defiance. Iraqi newspapers taunted both Bush and Blair, with the daily newspaper owned by Saddams eldest son, Uday, likening them to ruthless Mongol conquerors.
Delegates from six Gulf Arab states met yesterday with host Qatar urging the pro-Western alliance to set aside differences amid fears of war on Iraq.
Gulf Cooperation Council members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman have publicly opposed war.
But most of them host western military facilities and are likely to become launch pads for a strike, sending worrying signals through a region which sits on almost half the worlds oil reserves.
In Cairo, about 700 people staged a peaceful demonstration outside the Qatari embassy, protesting against the use of Arab countries as launch pads for any US-led attack on Iraq.
Glasgow Kelvin MP George Galloway, who earlier this week attended a Cairo conference against war, took part in the demonstration, organised by Egyptian activists.
He said: "This demonstration is just a taste of the gathering storm of rage on the streets of the Arab world."