> From: Yoshie Furuhashi <furuhashi.1 at osu.edu>
>
>
>
---Russian
> and Chechen leaders seek grounds for a compromise solution that
> leaves Chechnya autonomous but inside a federated Russia.
---
That would be great in a perfect world, but the fact of the matter is that
there is just no organized Chechen leadership. There are something like 40
different clans in Chechnys, who have all declared blood feuds on each
other, and Maskadov controls ONE. He barely controlled Grozny. He obviously
can't control Basayev (or, if he can, he's complicit in terrorism).
---
> Russia, on the other hand, will discover if there is truth to the
> domino principle: that other peoples will take Russia's defeat as a
> sign to secede as well. The potential dismemberment of Russia would
> precipitate a major Eurasian crisis that would inevitably draw in
> neighboring nations and provoke other realignments of peoples and
> clans.
---
This part I can't agree with. From talking to Caucasians and Tatars, I
gather that nobody wants independence. Independence has been a clear and
unequivocal disaster for everybody who tried it. Who wants to end up like
Chechnya, or even Armenia for that matter? Dagestanis hate Chechens.
---
> Should Russia continue to stay and fight it out, she may eke out a
> costly win. Despite the massive efforts required to win the war and
> rebuild the area, the Russians may have to re-fight the
> independence-minded Chechens in fifty years or so. Fighting a civil
> war over decades will recast the Russian state, society, and armed
> forces, giving greater power to organs of internal security.
----
This is what is probably going to happen, in my opinion.