>If one conference wins most of the time and the market tends to increase,
>then a correlation is not particularly informative -- even if it did make
>sense. Doug knows that people have found correlations with hemlines and
>all sorts of junk.
The football correlation is just that - a correlation, with no explanation behind it. The hemlines thing isn't so random. The theory is that hemlines rise in exuberant times, as does the stock market, and fall in gloomier ones. My beloved, Liza Featherstone, did a piece for a fashion mag called Nylon recently on changing tastes in breast size as an economic indicator - half as a joke, and half seriously. Just as the economy was slowing, the boyish look went out and bigger breasts came into style. Her editor at Nylon got a press release recently saying that big ones are out and small ones are now in - yet another sign of recovery! The theory here is that in tough times, the fashion is for nurturance; in good times, it's for ambition. An analogous theory is that in bad times, women are more eager to attract marriage partners, and so accentuate curves and minimize exposed flesh (so as to appear modest and potentially monogamous); in good times, they're more independent, less eager to get married, and more eager to show themselves off.
Doug