Turkmenistan-India gas pipeline talks revive as Taliban fall

[Vikash Yadav]

I don't think this idea sounds feasible at all.  The reason that an overland
pipeline to India won't be built is quite simple: Pakistan.  It does not
matter who is in charge in Afghanistan or what the US wants.  There is just
no way that India is going to allow itself to become dependent upon an
energy source that runs through the territory of its mortal enemy.

And there is even less reason why Pakistan wants to see India's economy meet
its growing energy needs.  Pakistan could earn much needed transit fees, but
I doubt even hard cash would be sufficient incentive to help its rival
succeed.  I am also dubious of the notion that the new regime in Afghanistan
will remain friendly for very long with Pakistan (Isn't Hamid Karzai a
graduate of Indian colleges?).

For some time there have been discussions about building either an overland
(~$3 billion) or deep underwater (~$30 billion) pipeline from the Persian
Gulf to Bombay.  But it has yet to materialize. The geo-strategic situation
makes it impossible for India (or any other country) to pour money into a
pipeline that can easily be destroyed by Pakistan during a war.

Foreign firms tend to believe that Pakistan will not destroy a pipeline
owned by multinational corporations if/when there is another war between
India & Pakistan.  Even if the government of Pakistan does not shut off the
pipeline in a war, anyone with a rifle or axe can stop an overland pipeline
if they really want to.  And there are probably a whole lot of people in
Pakistan who would not need to wait for the outbreak of war as an excuse to
cut off energy supplies to India.  As long as hostilities remain a fact of
life on the sub-continent India will have to rely on getting gas and oil
from tankers.

Vikash Yadav
Philadelphia, PA

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com
[mailto:owner-lbo-talk at lists.panix.com]On Behalf Of Ulhas Joglekar
Sent: Monday, February 04, 2002 08:51 PM
To: lbo-talk
Subject: Turkmenistan-India gas pipeline talks revive as Taliban fall

[...]
A consortium comprising Japanese and US firms was working on a project that
would link Turkmenistan's gas fields with India through neighbouring
Afghanistan and Pakistan.

But nothing came of it because of instability in Afghanistan under the
Taliban militia.

The emergence of a new government in Afghanistan that is friendly with its
neighbours has heightened prospects of building gas pipelines in South Asia,
one of the world's largest energy markets in the future.

[...]