Now it's just the former American triumphalists getting ready to blame a serious worldwide depression on Japan--as if things like Enron or the US stock bubble had nothing to do with it (the US has an economy about 2X the size of Japan's, but market equity 6X!) . And US trade deficits, government deficits, and deficit-financed military spending looks to squeeze the world credit supply still further.
I like that one about how Japan caused the Asian crisis. Certainly Japan could do little about it. Other theories about the Asian crisis of a few years back include: these countries put all their eggs in the dollar basket and there was no alternative currency. The US and the UK (and now China) have always opposed the yen being even the SECOND major currency of Asia.
If Japan can have a yen back at something like 140-150 yen to the dollar--something that is mostly up to the US to decide--it can reflate the economy, many of those bad loans will start to come good, and Japan will not be a cause of anything predicted in that Forbes article. Constantly dealing with all those 'bad' loans is treating the symptoms, not the disease.
Problem is China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Korea have all bet that the dollar would stay weak against the yen (as did quite a few Japanese companies who shifted production to these countries because nothing they made in Japan could be sold for profit).
Perhaps we'll never understand all the things that lead up to worlwide economic depressions, but I'm starting to think too much belief in any sort of economics and business models is a primary cause.
Charles Jannuzi
PS: the Shinsei bank deal was total cake for the gaijin. The government stuck the tax payers with the bad loans, the bank got to keep its good assets, and the bank gets continued subsidy from the government. Foreign management expertise my ass.