February 8, 2002
ASIA FILE
A Caspian tinderbox
The Afghan war has given the US a wonderful chance to consolidate its military presence in the oil-rich Caspian region, says Barun Roy
As the Central Asian republics emerge as the marshalling yard for the US-backed war against international terrorism, fear also grows that a potentially dangerous political tinderbox might be in the making. The Afghan war has given the US a wonderful chance to consolidate its military presence in the region, which sits on the world's richest new source of oil - the Caspian Basin. And a rising wave of domestic terrorism, blamed on Islamic fundamentalists, offers it an excellent excuse to lock hands with the region's repressive regimes and exact useful economic and political concessions. But its sport may be spoilt by huge problems of poverty that afflict the entire region and which political opponents and anti-American extremists are bound to exploit. For example, Tajikistan, a forlorn and wintry country of some six million people sharing a 1,000-mile border with Afghanistan, is counted among the 20 poorest nations in the world. Over 85 per cent of Tajiks are said to live below even the minimum subsistence level set by the government. In the wake of a prolonged and devastating civil war between communist elements and Islamic activists, which killed 50,000 people and destroyed homes, hospitals, schools, water systems, and roads, acute shortages have appeared. Unemployment has soared to about 17 per cent. Teachers' salaries have fallen to around $5 a month. Former professionals are reduced to peddling homemade bread or preserves in bazaars. Of Kyrgyz Republic's 4.9 million people, roughly 75 per cent have fallen below the poverty line. Every fifth rural citizen is rated as extremely poor as people are driven by a shrinking organised sector into low-paid occupations in agriculture. Today, the average consumption deficit of the Kyrgyz poor is over 18 per cent and the gap between them and the wealthiest grows wider and wider. Living standards have declined sharply, life expectancy has decreased, and the system of social protection has fallen apart. And, as if to symbolise the social decline, drug use has spread alarmingly and crime is on the rise. In Almaty, Kazakhstan's capital, crumbling slums coexist with $2,50,000-worth luxury apartments. There's deep resentment about unfair distribution of resources and opportunities. Beggars abound and drug trafficking is rampant. The social safety net has shrunk since independence and almost half the country's 15 million people live in poverty. The government says it can no longer support them in any way because it does not have the money. In the rural areas, where 57 per cent of all poor people live, monthly per capita income has slumped to $19. Orphanages report a noticeable increase in the number of children abandoned by parents with no means to look after them. High unemployment and growing underemployment mark Uzbekistan's economy too. The government claims the country's poverty head count levels are the lowest among the Central Asian republics - 20 to 30 per cent - but unofficial observers believe half the population may actually be living in poverty. Pensions have been reduced by half from $16 a month previously. It is quite common for workers to wait three to four months to be paid. Income disparities between urban and rural areas are growing and have created unacceptable poverty levels in certain regions. Of course, economists have an explanation for this very high incidence of poverty in the Central Asian republics: the break-up of the old support system under the former Soviet Union and the uncertainties of the passage to market-oriented reforms. There are also those who emphasise that the problems are temporary and assert that the reforms are beginning to bite. Kazakhstan, for example, had a 13 per cent GDP growth in 2001. But economic explanations provide no comfort for those who live on less than $ 1 a day. Deprivations create the basis for social unrest and give rise to domestic dissent and religious activism in Central Asia. If the Americans ignore this social and economic reality and abet political repression in the name of combating terrorism, activists and fanatics will have discovered a new cause to fight and die for. People in the region have begun to question democracy. If Islamic fundamentalists, strategically located in the Ferghana Valley between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, decide to stir up more trouble, the tinderbox will be ready to explode.
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