Zavtra is ultra-nationalist and red-brown. Pretty wide circulation, it gets sold on streetcorners (usually by old ladies also hawking Patriot and Soviet Russia).
Chris Doss The Russia Journal ----------------------------
Zavtra No. 7 February 2002 PUTIN-END Russia is in for some fairly interesting events Author: Alexander Nagorny [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] KASIANOV IS MAKING A MOVE, AND PUTIN IS AT A CROSSROADS. IT'S ALL CONNECTED WITH US PLANS FOR A STRIKE AGAINST IRAQ, AND THE NEED TO GET RUSSIA'S COOPERATION. RUSSIA'S NEUTRALITY WILL BE MINIMAL. THESE ARE THE STRATEGIC DECISIONS KASIANOV HAS MADE: PUTIN HIMSELF WOULD HAVE ACTED DIFFERENTLY.
The announcement of Bush's doctrine coincided with an interesting turn of events in the Kremlin. Shortly after the US president's address to the nation, Russia's second most prominent politician, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasianov, visited Washington. Actually, Kasianov was on his way to the World Economic Forum in New York, but landed in Washington for some reason. According to reports on Russian television, the stopover in the American capital was necessary "to prepare for Bush's visit to Moscow in spring for a meeting with Putin." However, experts who know how summits are arranged understand that the main agreements on such matters are reached through embassies or the telephone links between the Kremlin and the White House. Therefore, it follows that the stopover in Washington was needed to promote the interests of Kasianov himself and his supporters in the upper echelons of government, and Kasianov's eagerness to establish direct contact with the US leadership had its own logic and its own political motives.
Let us now take a look at the results of Kasianov's meeting with Vice President Cheney. It ended in an announcement of a previously unforeseen meeting with Bush. To attend it, Kasianov returned to Washington right after the forum in New York. When the meeting with the US president was over, ebullient Kasianov ventured several interesting comments. He said, specifically, that Russia was going to quit the oil export restrictions regime in March and that Moscow planned facilitation of cooperation with the United States within the framework of the "counter-terrorism coalition".
Nothing extraordinary at first sight. Everything looks quite differently, however, in the context of the military operations the United States plans to launch in several month and he implied demands. The problem is that the US Administration has already made up its mind on the matter of another strike. Given the impending revelations concerning the Bush-Enron connection and the securities crisis, a new military victory is certainly essential. Hence the necessity of a strike against the Iraqi leader (say, a missile strikes at the locations where Saddam is likely to be found, a short threatening maneuver near the borders, and an agreement with Iraqi generals - agreement smoothed out by huge financial bribes the way it happened in Afghanistan - on the return of Iraq into the international community). Economic results of the operation are easily predictable - legitimation of Iraq without Saddam and influx of oil at low prices to the global markets in late summer. It will solve the problem of the structural crisis the United States is facing and avert an impending financial crisis.
Moreover, the new wave of patriotism would do away with the corruption investigation concerning bribes from Enron and win Bush another term in the Oval Office. Gore's and Lieberman's Democrats will be crushed.
It is clear from this point of view that the strike promises Bush significant strategic advantages at a low tactical cost, primarily the indignation of the Arab states demanding an immediate oil price-rise. This is where Kasianov's help in Russia will be very useful.
There is even more to it. Kasianov's promise of deeper "counter- terrorism cooperation" - right after the proclamation of what the Axis of Evil is - indicates official consent to anti-Iraqi actions. In other words, Russia's neutrality will be minimal. These are the strategic decisions Kasianov made. Putin himself would have acted differently. He would have bartered Russia's consent for Berezovsky's extradition and a pledge from the Americans to take into account the positions of some Russian oil companies, like LUKoil.
Making all these bold decisions and statements, Kasianov does not care that a successful American military operation in the Middle East would bring down oil prices to $10 a barrel, killing Russian oil companies and smashing the already crippled national economy. Massive new financial injections into the economy would become essntial. This turn of events will realize the concept of Chubais and the Finance Ministry he controls via Kudrin, the concept of new international loans. This concept and policy would eventually lead to more and more debts, and eventually to bankruptcy. This is what happened to Argentina.
This is where we come to a solution. Despite his pro-Western position, earlier this year Putin found himself facing the necessity of personnel changes. The necessity is dire indeed, caused in the first place by Berezovsky's campaign (his claims concerning explosions in Moscow are attentively heard in Washington and London). Berezovsky will never be extradited to Russia, and his book of accusations will be like Solzhenitsyn's "Gulag Archipelago". Putin's image all over the world, primarily in Europe, will be ruined beyond repair. He will no longer be received at Buckingham Palace or anywhere else, and the fate of Ciausescu may eventually befall him.
Secondly, the leading oligarchs have already met in Moscow and resolved to topple Putin and his team from the secret services. They will accomplish that by deliberately provoking an economic crisis in Russia in the near future. Oligarchs' attempts to save Kiselev and his team are an example of this conspiracy. It makes logical the decision - wholly unfounded - to raise tariffs when Chubais raised them by 25- 30% through his puppet Khristenko, without bothering to consult the Federal Tariff Commission. Oligarchs fear too much that property will be redistributed again and that someone may decide to investigate what happened to the money of Gazprom, Russian Joint Energy Systems, oil companies, etc.
Thirdly, lack of personnel decisions with regard to Chubais, Voloshin, and finally Kasianov - even though they are so free in talking to their masters from abroad - indicates weakness and lack of confidence on the part of the new ruler. It is common knowledge that the weak do not stand a chance in free-market economies.
Chubais and Voloshin plotted this game against Putin. this assumption is confirmed by the fact that precisely their representatives met with senior officials of the Bush administration at Christmas and at the World Economic Forum and "persistently asked to put Putin under pressure". It is all this taken together that made usually spineless Kasianov self-confident for some maneuvering of his own, maneuvering that may result in his resignation as prime minister or even make him a target for the prosecutor's office (particularly since there is lots of evidence proving certain machinations with foreign debts).
Looking at all this, it isn't hard to predict that Russia is in for some fairly interesting events soon. Berezovsky's predictions of the president's early resignation may actually come to pass no matter how unbelievable they may appear right now. Just like in a well-known Russian folk story, Putin is at a crossroads: if he turns left (makes staff changes) he'll lose his head because of the Americans. If he goes straight ahead (leave everything as it is) he'll be slowly strangled by an economic crisis and a propaganda campaign in Europe. If he turns right (follows in Gorbachev's footsteps and permits the disintegration of Russia) he'll be toppled by the military, with the support of the starving masses (even though he might expect a Nobel Peace Prize). Putin has made up his mind. In his interview with The Wall Street Journal, he supported Kasianov's initiatives in Washington.